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North Carolina’s propensity for ticket-splitting is so confounding that it recently inspired conspiracy theories.
One TikToker highlighted what he viewed as North Carolina’s suspicious voting irregularities in a video that’s been viewed 2.5 million times. “Are you really trying to tell me 352,357 Democrats decided to vote for the Democratic candidate for the governor but not for the president? Yeah, I believe that,” he said sarcastically.
On X, a user with 1.3 million followers suggested authorities should launch an inquiry in N.C.: “And as long as we don’t storm the Capitol, why can’t we DEMAND an investigation?”
Though it might be surprising—especially as the nation’s partisanship peaks—the truth is simple. Ticket-splitting may be unusual for other states, but it’s typical here. North Carolinians have a long history of voting for candidates from both parties in a single election.
“North Carolina possesses that rare political animal nowadays, the split-ticket voter,” said Michael Bitzer, chair of the Department of Politics at Catawba College. “You could say it’s in our political DNA.”
It also reflects historical trends. Even throughout the solid Democratic-controlled early decades of the 20th century, Bitzer said North Carolina was probably the most competitive two-party state.
In general, Bitzer said the state has seen a roughly 5-to-6-point slice of the electorate engage in ticket-splitting since 2008, while the rest are partisan loyalists. As we’ve seen from close races, those small slices can make all the difference.
For The Assembly, Johanna F. Still breaks down vote-splitting.
Ticket-Splitting is Part of Our DNA
North Carolina is home to a “rare political animal”: the split-ticket voter. Though the state’s electoral outcomes may seem head-scratching to some, it’s par for the course.
Catch up on an audio conversation on last week’s edition here. Contact The Dive team with tips and feedback at wilmington@theassemblync.com.
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Election 2.0
Due to an unexpected, unannounced, and possibly unlawful move by the New Hanover County Board of Elections, between 1,500 and 1,800 mail-in ballots remained uncounted after the totals were announced on Election night.
Because mail-in ballots tend to lean Democratic (by as much as 2:1), they can upset close elections. There are several races where a Republican and Democratic candidate are just a few hundred votes apart. You can do the math. Candidates sure as hell are.
Confusion and frustration followed. County manager Chris Coudriet, usually even-keeled, has vented in several emails over the lack of communication from elections officials. The county’s attorney has suggested the elections board seek outside counsel.
It is, in short, a mess.
The proximate cause: an administrative decision by Elections Director Rae Hunter-Havens to hold back mail-in ballots received after October 31, with the intent of counting them on Thursday, Nov. 14, the day before the county canvass when all votes are finalized. The reasoning was, essentially, the lack of resources needed to handle the volume of ballots and verify their validity.
This seemingly contradicts state law requiring nearly all mail-in ballots received before Election Day to be counted and reported in vote totals that night. In fact, the state itself explicitly asked media outlets to share this as one of the things to expect. The state elections board has stuck up for Hunter-Havens, and its spokesperson called New Hanover’s reaction “ridiculous,” considering post-election absentee ballot counting happens every presidential cycle.
According to statewide data, several other urban counties also had large backlogs of uncounted mail-in ballots, including Durham, Forsyth, and Wake. Locally, Brunswick and Pender counties had proportionately far fewer uncounted mail-in ballots.
Both Hunter-Havens and Elections Board Chair Derrick Miller defended the administrative decision, saying it was based on their reading of state guidance. However, the state board has distanced itself, saying it gave no guidance that would have supported such a decision.
At Tuesday’s election board meeting, Miller did fall on his sword a bit, admitting he had instructed Hunter-Havens to prioritize preparing for the canvass over responding to questions.
Earlier in the week, the county had preemptively emphasized its full financial support for the elections board, saying it had not rejected any requests for resources and had never penalized the elections office for going over budget.
However, in an email, Miller said he personally felt the elections office was underfunded, hindering its ability to keep up with increasing demands and new laws.
“The county tells us to submit lean budget requests, so we do,” he wrote, adding that staff had been working 70 to 80 or more hours a week. “At some point, you have to get more people.”
Miller also said he hopes the county reconsiders an earlier request to raise precinct official pay to the county’s minimum wage.
All of this culminated in a formal elections protest filed Tuesday by Republican Commissioner Dane Scalise, whose re-election bid landed him in the second of three top spots, ahead of longtime Democratic incumbent Jonathan Barfield, Jr., who finished fourth by about 500 votes.
Scalise’s petition demands the opportunity to inspect the ballots in question and that they be counted immediately. However, there won’t be a preliminary hearing on it until the canvass on Friday, after those votes are tallied. So, it’s unclear if Scalise would have standing, or reason, to take further action after that.
On Tuesday, the bipartisan elections board unanimously affirmed its faith in the integrity and accuracy of this year’s vote counting and universally praised the hard work of Hunter-Havens and her team.
Despite the frustration, there has been no evidence of fraud, miscounting, or a break in the chain of custody of the uncounted ballots. There’s nothing, for example, to support former commissioner and influential conservative Woody White’s claim on X that “the only remedy in this situation is to disqualify these ballots.”
Asked about the post, Hunter-Havens called White’s suggestion “frankly shocking” and noted she’d consulted with the state board’s general counsel. “County boards of elections will not discard the eligible ballots of duly authorized voters and violate their constitutional right to vote,” she said.
As I’ve written elsewhere, this story was caused by poor communication. More prompt, direct answers like that could have nipped this in the bud.
– Benjamin Schachtman
Around the Region
Billion With a B: A life sciences company is planning a $1.5-billion investment for pharmaceutical storage and transportation facilities at the Wilmington International Airport and in Ireland, Greater Wilmington Business Journal reports.
Remembering 1898: PBS released a documentary on the 1898 Wilmington coup, WHQR reports. Separately, a museum to remember the massacre is being planned in the Brooklyn Arts District, Port City Daily reports.
Super’s Show: The New Hanover County Board of Education voted 5-2 to extend the contract of interim superintendent, Chris Barnes, WHQR reports.
Around the State
The Race to Save America’s Favorite Christmas Tree
The Fraser fir is threatened by a nasty root rot. State scientists are trying to save the iconic species.
Western N.C. Official: ‘Businesses Need Funding Now’
Local officials discuss what the election results mean for relief efforts in Western N.C.
‘We Keep Doing It for Other Women’
Survivor Sheila Mikhail has been advocating for the state to ensure women with dense breast tissue can get additional cancer screenings.
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