The Dive: Signs of the Times

If the barrage of political texts, ads, and signs didn’t make it clear, early voting is underway in North Carolina. 

It started off last week strong, with voters casting a historic number of in-person ballots early, breaking the previous record by about 1 percent. Voters are still turning out every day, with close to 1.6 million in-person ballots cast as of Tuesday, up about 6 percent from the same time in 2020.

In all, about two in 10 registered voters completed a ballot so far.

Brunswick County voters have cast 37,882 total ballots as of Tuesday, with New Hanover at 34,931 cast and Pender at 11,413. Interestingly, Brunswick is ahead of New Hanover, despite New Hanover’s larger population. It could be because Brunswick’s population skews older, and they are typically more likely to turn out, but we’ll try to refrain from any further tea-leaf reading. 

Republicans have been turning out earlier this year compared to previous years, a development to watch considering conservative voters tend to wait for a big showing on Election Day. 

While some local voters have complained about hours-long lines, no major issues have emerged thus far. A word of caution to those who want to avoid the lines: The polling place wait-time tracker is updated hourly, which is why some folks may be experiencing variation in what they see online versus what they experience on site. 

Nevertheless, county elections officials update the tracker manually by hand by distributing wait time slips to the last voter in line.

Polling places in New Hanover County may feel slightly more congested this year compared to 2020, given the high turnout and a reduction in polling sites, down from nine to five. In 2020, elections offices were operating under a state emergency order that called for one polling site per 20,000 voters, according to elections director Rae Hunter-Havens. Like this general election, 2016 also have five polling sties. Hunter-Havens said the county has more election officials working this election compared to years past.

The elections director wants voters to be aware of all the different voting options still available to them: early in-person, Election Day and absentee-by-mail voting. Voters have until Oct. 29 to request an absentee ballot and can do so online; absentee ballots must be received by 7:30 p.m. on Election Day.

For folks looking for voting guidance, The Assembly offers a useful nonpartisan elections guide. You can plug in your address and our program will spit out an interactive ballot with biographical details on each candidate. If you need help remembering all those names and races, voters can bring printed-out voter guides or access their phones while in the booth (you just can’t take a picture of the ballot you’re actively voting on). 

In a couple of weeks, the elections hoopla will (hopefully) be all over. Until then, Democratic vice presidential nominee Gov. Tim Walz is stopping by Wilmington tonight for a campaign event with musician James Taylor. For those counting, Wilmington has been a hot spot for a swarm of politicians in recent months: Republican vice presidential nominee Sen. JD Vance, Second Gentleman Doug Emhoff, former President Donald Trump, former President Bill Clinton, and President Joe Biden. 

If Vice President Kamala Harris decides to make a last-minute stop, that’d make it a royal flush.

– Johanna F. Still

Read this newsletter online or contact The Dive team with tips and feedback at wilmington@theassemblync.com.

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Let’s Talk About Tax, Baby

These days, local taxes are not an issue that motivates rallies, passionate letters to the editor, or diatribes on social media. But, in an uncertain economy, it still makes a potent talking point. 

New Hanover County’s three Republican candidates for commissioner—including incumbents Dane Scalise and Bill Rivenbark, and challenger John Hinnant—have all said they’re against raising taxes. Rivenbark and Scalise have both touted cutting taxes in 2023, although their campaign material doesn’t say by how much.

Meanwhile, incumbent Democrat Jonathan Barfield Jr. said during this year’s budget negotiations that he would be okay with either raising taxes or dipping into the county’s revenue stabilization fund, a $300-million nest egg the county squirreled away from the 2021 sale of New Hanover Regional Medical Center to Novant Health. During a recent candidate event, Barfield changed his approach, saying there was no need to raise taxes because of the stabilization fund, but he didn’t mention the political difficulty of tapping that reserve.

Democratic challengers Cassidy Santaguida and Stephanie Walker didn’t rule out tax increases, but both were pretty cautious about the limited circumstances under which they’d do so.

But what are we actually talking about when we talk about county taxes, and what is the impact? 

First, it’s worth knowing what a change in the tax rate means for homeowners. The median appraisal for a single-family home in New Hanover County is $284,000 (much lower than the median market rate of around $500,000), and has a tax bill of $1,278. A half-cent tax cut, like the one supported by Rivenbark and Scalise, would drop the bill to $1,264, a difference of a dollar and change a month. For reference, a half-cent of taxes equals about $2.5 million in county revenue, more than the total amount given to nonprofits. 

There are certainly people for whom $25 or $50 a year is a real issue, but I doubt many live in half-million-dollar houses. For most, it’s more about philosophical differences over what services the county should provide. 

Next, the tax situation will change dramatically in February of next year, when the county undergoes a reevaluation. The county does this every four years, and it tends to increase appraised property values considerably. In 2021, the reval expanded the overall tax base by a full third.

Because property was worth much more, then-Chair Julia Olson-Boseman could pass a budget that decreased the tax rate but increased the overall revenue from property taxes (if you owned property, your bill increased from the previous year). While that funded a well-regarded increase in teacher pay, it also nearly doubled commissioners’ stipends, a less popular outcome. The county tried to describe the budget as a tax cut—which, while technically true, ignored the real costs, and left some property owners feeling gaslit.

So, next year, it won’t really be about whether the tax rate goes up or down, it’ll be about the overall increase or decrease in tax bills, a better indication of how the county government is growing (or not) compared to population, inflation, and services rendered. 

Lastly, there are other options. One, which most candidates support, is a school bond to help pay for facility upgrades (New Hanover High School alone could cost upward of $90 million to fix and possibly more to replace). Bonds often, but not always, increase the tax rate. But because they’re tied to specific projects, and approved by the voters, they can be less politically dicey. And unlike a tax hike, which can, in theory, stick around forever, a bond actually gets paid off.

And then there’s the aforementioned $300 million county revenue fund. It is currently generating plenty of investment interest, which the county has been using to fund a host of programs, but the principal has remained largely untouched. It’ll stay that way without a supermajority approval from four out of five commissioners. Since the board’s current Republican commissioners have all said they’re against tapping into it, Democrats would have to win all three seats in this year’s election to access it.

That’s not impossible, but it’s certainly not a sure shot.

– Benjamin Schachtman

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Around the Region

Swing State Struggle:  Many swing state voters have seen a disproportionate rise in housing costs compared to the rest of the nation, a Washington Post analysis found. Wilmington home prices are up 65 percent since 2019. 

Getting Territorial: Southport and Brunswick County leaders are at odds over a proposed countywide emergency management services agreement that would mean Southport fire services could be dispatched outside their current response area, Port City Daily reports.

Data Dilemma: The state informed New Hanover County Schools that the district is at risk of disproportionally identifying Black students with emotional disturbance, WHQR reports.

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Around the State

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