The world is in the midst of what could turn into a fertility rate crisis. 

Fewer babies mean fewer future workers, which could create societal and economic issues. After the post-pandemic birth bump, there was hope that the short-lived boost may reverse the slump, but the latest international figures appear to solidify the downward trend. 

Births in the U.S. last year reached the lowest level in decades. Broadly, economists and demographers aren’t in absolute agreement over what’s going on but suspect cultural and financial shifts are to blame.

Fertility rates last peaked in North Carolina in 2007. So, what does this mean for us locally? 

New Hanover has among the lowest urban fertility rates statewide. Births in New Hanover County slid back to pre-pandemic levels last year, with 2,122 babies born, according to provisional data from the N.C. Department of Health and Human Services. 

University of North Carolina regional economist Mouhcine Guettabi said he’s not entirely sure why New Hanover has a low fertility rate compared to its urban peers, but suggested it could be due to the university or the area’s racial composition. (Onslow County, home to Camp Lejeune, has the highest, likely due to its young military population.)

Births in the retirement haven Brunswick County are up from before the pandemic. Even so, Brunswick has seen a natural decrease–more deaths than births–for over a decade. “Although most of the migration is older retirees, there are families and childbearing age people moving into Brunswick, and the school-age population is projected to increase in the coming years,” said Nathan Dollar, the director of Carolina Demography. Still, the retirement-age population will see the largest gains.

When growth comes from newcomers instead of within the community, Guettabi said one major impact is that existing residents tend to bear the costs of economic expansion in the form of higher taxes and more congestion. He cited the recent tax increase revolt in Leland as an example. “There is increasing disconnect between the welfare, needs, and desires of the original residents and growth-minded policymakers,” he said.

State Demographer Michael Cline says he expects North Carolina to see more deaths than births beginning around 2038, a benchmark the Census has set for when the nation will rely solely on immigration to support growth.

Catch up on an audio conversation on last week’s edition of The Dive here and contact us with story ideas and feedback at wilmington@theassemblync.com

Fresh Out the Slammer

While wolfing down Zaxby’s and driving down the highway, Wilmington Councilman Kevin Spears went on Facebook Live Tuesday afternoon to update an eager audience. “I’m fresh out!” he joked. “I took a little unexpected vacation.”

The vacation? Twenty-four hours in the Columbus County Detention Center. 

On Monday, Judge Heath Nance found Spears in contempt of court during a child support hearing. Court officials said Spears was uncooperative and disruptive with “irrelevant banter” and ignored multiple warnings.

In the two-minute live, Spears seemed upbeat and bewildered by his previous night in jail. The food sucked, he said, and he was hungry. “Sleeping on a mat on the floor,” he said, “that ain’t what you do to a councilman, my God.”

Had the judge kept him much longer, he might have missed that evening’s council meeting. 

At the meeting, Spears thanked Nance for helping him shine a light on jail overcrowding and inmate conditions before opining on courtroom decorum. “What does ‘irrelevant banter’ mean, and to whom?” he asked. “And how is any banter about a person’s life irrelevant?”

Later in a Facebook post, Spears said he was a little delusional for thinking a Black man could walk into court and advocate for himself. “Lesson learned!”

–Johanna F. Still

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Around the Region

In the Blood: A scientist who discovered in the ‘90s that fluorochemicals were present in the blood of virtually all Americans tells ProPublica and The New Yorker how 3M executives convinced her it was safe when they knew it wasn’t.

‘Stay Safe Out There’: New Hanover County Commissioner Dane Scalise told conservative radio talk show Wilmington’s Morning News on 980 WAAV that a Port City United employee intimidated him with a veiled threat because of his public stance to defund the county program, which employs gang members. 

Classroom Conditions: New Hanover County Schools scored lower in several areas including teacher retention and leadership compared to statewide responses, according to a recent survey reviewed by WHQR.

Around the State

Here’s the Beef

State measures taken to address the shortage of local meat during the pandemic have had a longer shelf life than anyone imagined.

No Place Like Home

After the state abruptly closed a Fayetteville veterans home, years of problems came to light.

A Legacy in Limbo

Lorenzo Lynch was a prominent Durham pastor, his daughter became U.S. attorney general. Now his tenants are in a legal dispute with the family.

The Assembly is a digital magazine covering power and place in North Carolina. Sent this by a friend? Subscribe to The Wilmington Dive or to our statewide newsletter.

Johanna F. Still is a health care reporter for The Assembly. She previously worked for the Greater Wilmington Business Journal, where she reported on economic development. She is also a photographer, and was the assistant editor of Port City Daily.