The Dive: A Once-A-Millennium Storm

It came with little warning and no name. Tropical Cyclone 8 arrived Monday morning, and like many weather systems familiar to the Cape Fear region, it was predicted to bring heavy rainfall and potential flooding.

But the deluge it delivered caught seemingly everyone by surprise.

In just 12 hours, the storm dumped as much as 20 inches of rain on Carolina Beach and 19 inches around Southport. Predictions called for around 8 inches. While the region has witnessed several named storms over the past few years, before this week, none have seemed to stack up to 2018’s Hurricane Florence, which unloaded 36 inches of rain on the area over three days. 

With any closure decision, leaders are bound to attract some criticism. Parents complain when school is canceled or delayed and nothing happens. But keeping schools open in New Hanover County on Monday was clearly a mistake, one the district’s new interim superintendent Christopher Barnes owned up to in a public apology by that afternoon.

In Carolina Beach, sheriff’s officers in a high-water vehicle dropped kids off after Carolina Beach Elementary School became inaccessible. Water in the town flowed over the marina and inundated homes and businesses. Flooding submerged dozens of cars across the island. Tow truck drivers are surely having a field day. 

Sheila Marshall, a local whose house borders Carolina Beach Lake Park, told WECT she lost her car, golf cart, and RV. “I’ve dealt with Florence, Floyd, Fran, I’ve dealt with them all,” she said. “But this one was one for the books because there was no preparation.”

In New Hanover County, emergency responders collected over 130 people and about 20 animals on Pleasure Island, according to a county spokesperson. 

Brunswick County Schools canceled classes early Monday morning but made it an optional workday for employees, meaning teachers would have to burn a vacation day or go unpaid if they skipped work. Several stranded Town Creek Elementary School teachers slept at school. 

Water rescue teams collected people in Leland’s Stony Creek, a traumatic déjà vu for residents who suffered feet of water in their homes during Florence.

Brunswick County reported more than 100 road closures Monday, with many buckling under washouts and sinkholes. Hundreds of vehicles were stuck for hours on Highway 17, which was underwater for long stretches. A Boar’s Head delivery driver handed out charcuterie to fellow stranded motorists who hadn’t eaten for hours, Port City Daily reported. 

Many spent the night in their cars waiting for the water to recede under the light of the full moon. A dive team discovered an 80-year-old man who authorities said died Tuesday after he drove past stationary Brunswick County Sheriff’s Office vehicles and into floodwater on N.C. 211.

Meteorologists often categorize rainfall in years, so when you hear “100-year flood,” it means there was a 1 percent chance of the rainfall event. But when multiple tiny-percent chance events occur in succession, it raises concern. Monday’s no-name storm was a 1,000-year rain event—or a 0.1 percent chance of occurrence. 

National Weather Service Wilmington meteorologist-in-charge Steve Pfaff told WHQR the region has seen at least nine multi-hundred-year rain events since Hurricane Floyd in 1999. 

“​The extreme events are becoming more frequent compared to what we typically would see over longer periods,” Pfaff told WHQR.

It remains to be seen whether Monday was just a freak occurrence, or if the region should be ready for more.

– Johanna F. Still

Read this newsletter online or contact The Dive team with tips and feedback at johanna@theassemblync.com.

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Law & Order

Last week, Wilmington resident Justina Nicole Guardino was arrested on a federal warrant alleging she participated in the January 6 insurrection after attending outgoing President Donald Trump’s rally.

In the Cape Fear region, it’s notable because Guardino was until recently a leader in the local chapter of Moms for Liberty. She was also, at one point, the campaign manager for Natosha Tew, an outspoken Republican candidate for New Hanover County school board and the founder of that local M4L chapter.

More on that, in a minute.

First, I should note that Guardino is innocent until proven guilty. She’s represented by Assistant Federal Public Defender Benjamin Schiffelbein, a tough attorney who has clashed with judges when necessary and defended other January 6 suspects.

Neither Schiffelbein nor Guardino (who is no longer in custody) have responded to requests for comment, so it’s too early to say what their defense will be. But it’s fair to say Guardino is well-represented. 

Still, the feds’ case is pretty strong, as WHQR reported this week. Most of the January 6 cases have been successful. The courts have dismissed just a dozen or so and acquitted just three out of more than 1,400.

It probably won’t help that Guardino initially claimed that she returned to her hotel room after the rally concluded, and stayed there for the rest of the day–although she appears in multiple images “taken by another rioter” and on the Capitol’s CCTV system, according to the federal complaint. She later changed her story, admitting to investigators she’d gone to the Capitol after seeing TV coverage, but claimed it was “peaceful,” open to the public, and “akin to a tour.”

Presented with additional evidence, Guardino acknowledged that her entry into the Capitol—through a window, at one point—had “not been a public tour.”

It’s worth noting Guardino’s admission came after federal agents showed up at her Wilmington home in August 2022. That gives you a sense of how long these cases can take.

So, what does Guardino’s arrest mean?

It certainly won’t delegitimize M4L at the national level. The organization’s model, similar to the leaderless resistance of the alt-right Proud Boys, lets local chapters shrug off what happens elsewhere (like, say, quoting Hitler, or any of the other controversial statements documented by the left-leaning Southern Poverty Law Center).

The local chapter disowned Guardino, who apparently resigned as vice-chair just a few weeks before prosecutors formally filed the case against her. Asked about Guardino’s arrest, Chair Jan Boswell said only that her chapter had “no further information.” 

The move is a little surprising, given M4L candidates like Tew still invoke claims against government abuses of power and pandemic measures as “tyranny.” Post-pandemic, the group has broadened its platform under the umbrella of parental rights. It has toed the line of accusing school districts of abusing children, allegations that, even without evidence, resonate deeply with many locally because of the history of sexual abuse in New Hanover County public schools. Tew has also accused the school board of attempting to violate her free speech rights after law enforcement had to escort her from a public meeting. 

M4L declined the opportunity to stick up for Guardino. 

But maybe Guardino’s arrest is an opportunity for M4L to distance themselves from more explicitly anti-government behavior–especially now that they’re trying to field legitimate candidates for office.

And, speaking of candidates, what does Guardino’s arrest mean for Tew? 

There was a time when having your campaign manager arrested by the feds would have been, to say the least, a hiccup. That doesn’t seem to be the case here. Tew has deleted social media posts featuring Guardino, and Guardino’s own Facebook account was renamed and then apparently deleted shortly after her arrest. 

Nothing to see here. Well, almost nothing. 

Tew did briefly change her background image on Facebook. Two days before Guardino’s arrest, she posted Trump’s January 6 tweet, belatedly calling for “no violence” and reminding his followers that “WE are the party of Law & Order.” (At the time of Trump’s tweet, Guardino was photographed climbing into the Capitol.)

It could be a coincidence, a preemptive defense, or a coded apology. We’ll probably never know. One minute later, Tew changed it again, to an AI-generated image of cats wearing red MAGA-style hats with the words “make cats safe again,” an homage to Trump and running mate JD Vance’s false and bigoted claims that Haitian immigrants are eating cats in Springfield, Ohio.

– Benjamin Schachtman

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Around the Region

Party-line Politicians: New Hanover County Board of Commissioners made another party-line appointment for the New Hanover Community Endowment, former Republican Wrightsville Beach Mayor Bill Blair, WHQR reports. 

Rain Check: Former President Donald Trump is set to return to Wilmington on Saturday for a rally after weather delayed his campaign event in April. The StarNews has the details on the security protocols, on the heels of a second assassination attempt.

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Around the State

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