What to Expect in the State Senate Succession Fight

When lawmakers return to Raleigh next year, both chambers will look considerably different. Democrats flipped control of the state House, while Republicans are on track to hold a narrow majority in the Senate. 

House Democratic Leader Robert Reives is expected to win the speaker’s gavel when the legislative session kicks off on January 13. 

But a fight has been simmering for months over who will lead the Senate since President Pro Tempore Phil Berger lost his primary in March. He has led the chamber since Republicans took control in 2011, and he was minority leader before that. So it’s been a while since North Carolina has seen a meaningful tangle over Senate leadership.

Here’s what you need to know.

Who Picks the Senate Leader?

If state Sen. Danny Britt of Robeson County hangs on to his current 268-vote lead, Republicans will have a 26-24 edge in the chamber. The narrow majority would let Republicans select a GOP successor to Berger. 

Traditionally, newly elected lawmakers come to Raleigh in December for orientation and closed-door caucus meetings. During those discussions, leadership candidates make their case, and members take private votes. If they reach consensus, the caucus usually announces who won. So we could know Berger’s replacement by mid-December.

If nobody wins the caucus vote, though, it could set in motion a mad leadership scramble. 

Under state law, the full Senate will vote on its new president pro tempore (usually called the Senate leader) on January 13. The leader needs the votes of a majority of the members present, and at least 26 senators have to show up. Democratic Lt. Gov. Rachel Hunt would break any ties.

Who’s in the Mix?

Sen. Michael Lee of New Hanover County was a top contender for the post, but he lost his reelection bid and won’t return to the chamber next year. 

Four other Republicans have thrown their names in the hat. Sens. Todd Johnson of Union County, Ralph Hise of Mitchell County, and Brent Jackson of Sampson County all jumped in earlier this year, and they won reelection.

Hise is Berger’s second-in-command, and Jackson is among the Senate’s chief budget writers, so they are considered establishment figures. While Johnson is the majority whip, he’s campaigning as a break from Berger. He’s held elected political office for the shortest time and is the youngest of the candidates vying for the post.

On Wednesday morning, Sen. Jim Burgin of Harnett County told The Assembly he would seek the leadership post as well. Since joining the legislature in 2019, Burgin has been a reliable GOP vote, but he has gone further than many of his colleagues in trying to collaborate with Democrats. “I have a reputation for working with people and building consensus,” he said.

What About the Democrats?

If even one Republican refuses to support the caucus’ nominee when the Senate votes in January, Democrats would have a lot of influence over the process. Democrats are also expected to request a recount in Britt’s race, and if he lost, the chamber would be tied, with Hunt as the deciding vote.

Senate Democratic leader Sydney Batch of Wake County took over her party’s caucus last year by rallying enough of her colleagues against Dan Blue, who led the caucus for the prior decade. After initially planning not to seek reelection, Blue changed his mind and handily won his safe Wake County seat. Batch would likely be the top choice for Berger’s job among Senate Democrats, though.

One more person of interest: former Rockingham County Sheriff Sam Page, who defeated Berger in the primary. Senate Democrats will have four newcomers in the chamber; Page, however, will be the only new face in the Senate Republican caucus next year. While many of the incumbents are loyal to one of the GOP leadership candidates, Page didn’t respond to The Assembly about who he’ll support, though a person close to him said he’ll likely back Johnson.