Top Races to Watch in 2026

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These are the 2026 midterm contests in North Carolina that are expected to be the most competitive, consequential, or interesting—or all three. 

In-person early voting begins Thursday, and November 3 is Election Day. 

Read on for the top 10 races to watch, and learn about more contests we’re following here.

1. 11th Congressional District

On paper, Democrats shouldn’t have much shot at winning the state’s westernmost U.S. House seat. President Donald Trump carried the district by 9.5 percentage points in 2024, and Republican Rep. Chuck Edwards won it by 13.5 points the same year.

But this year has been far from normal. Edwards abandoned his re-election bid in August after a House ethics panel concluded that he “engaged in persistent unprofessional and inappropriate conduct towards two young female staffers.” The House then voted nearly unanimously to censure him.

The move set off a frenzy among Republicans to find someone to replace him on the ballot. Ultimately, local party leaders tapped state Rep. Jennifer Balkcom of Henderson County.

Democratic farmer Jamie Ager has enjoyed widespread support within his party, with national groups stepping in to back him even before the primary was over. Ager enters the fall with months of campaign trail experience that Balkcom doesn’t have, and his Hickory Nut Gap Farms is well-known in the region.

Meanwhile, Balkcom’s state House district only covers northern Henderson County. While she has given media interviews and appeared at a rally alongside Trump to try to boost her name recognition, it could be difficult to overcome her late start.

Balkcom won’t report her first fundraising numbers until mid-October, but Ager had a big head start there, too. He entered July with nearly $2.2 million in his campaign coffers, which goes a long way in the Asheville media market.

In ads, both candidates have tried to out-folksy the other, with Ager highlighting the monthly barn dances at his farm and Balkcom emphasizing her family’s “tough mountain leadership” with a story about the time her mother shot a home intruder.

In June 2025, The Assembly reported that most local observers agreed that Republicans were favored to hold this seat. But as of early October, the nonpartisan Cook Political Report considers this race a toss-up. 

2. 1st Congressional District 

When Trump encouraged states to redraw district maps mid-decade to bolster Republican chances of preserving their U.S. House majority, North Carolina state Senate leader Phil Berger quickly obliged. Democratic U.S. Rep. Don Davis was the main target. 

This year’s contest is a rematch of the 2024 battle between Davis and Republican challenger Laurie Buckhout. In that race, Davis edged out Buckhout by 1.7 percentage points. After redistricting, the 1st District is 6 points more favorable to Republicans; it swung for Trump by 7.3 points in 2020 and 11.6 points in 2024.

All that to say: Davis has his work cut out for him. But he’s repeatedly proven he shouldn’t be underestimated. He’s bucked his party on tough votes, most recently by supporting a resolution condemning socialism. During his time in the state legislature, he defied then-Gov. Roy Cooper on votes like increased restrictions on abortion.

Buckhout has said she didn’t expect to enter this race. She initially supported Rocky Mount Mayor Sandy Roberson, who backed out as his city faced a financial crisis. Buckhout then fended off Carteret County Sheriff Asa Buck and now-former state Sen. Bobby Hanig for the GOP nomination. 

Cook Political Report recently changed its rating to show this race is a toss-up. Voters are frustrated with rising costs of living, and Trump’s approval ratings remain low, so this is one to watch.

3. Senate District 11

For a read on the mood of the state, look no further than the Nash County district held by Republican state Sen. Lisa Stone Barnes.

Barnes has flooded the airwaves, a sign that Republicans see this as a critical battleground. She faces a formidable opponent in James Gailliard, a pastor and former member of the state House. The two briefly overlapped in the chamber.

Gailliard is campaigning as someone who won’t rubberstamp his party’s priorities. He bucked then-Gov. Cooper on issues like abortion. Despite his independent streak, Gailliard has said he wouldn’t override any of Gov. Josh Stein’s vetoes if elected.

Barnes has consistently stuck with the GOP on contentious issues this legislative session.

To break the Republican supermajority in the state Senate, Democrats need all their incumbents to win and to pick off one GOP seat. Barnes won re-election in 2024 by less than 2.6 points, the closest Senate race a Republican won that cycle. This district could present Democrats with their best pickup opportunity.

4. State Supreme Court

This statewide contest won’t change much about the current court, but it’s key in the long run.

If Democratic Justice Anita Earls wins re-election, the high court would maintain the 5-2 conservative advantage. But it would put Democrats in a better position to flip the court in 2028, when three Republican seats are on the ballot.

That matters because the legislature will draw new voting maps after the 2030 U.S. Census, and the court could wind up having to weigh in—which would have a big impact on the 2032 election.

If Earls loses to former state Rep. Sarah Stevens, Republicans would gain a 6-1 advantage on the Supreme Court. The differences between Earls and Stevens also couldn’t be starker. Stevens could wind up assessing the constitutionality of bills she voted on; she’s already signaled it would take a lot to get her to strike down state laws. 

Earls, meanwhile, routinely issues scathing dissents and pushes for changes to the legal system. Earls co-chaired a racial equity task force under Cooper, which Stevens viewed as mixing the responsibilities of the executive and judicial branches.

Earls’ campaign entered July with 13 times the cash on hand as Stevens. While Stevens has been elusive on the campaign trail, Earls has held or attended roughly 200 public or campaign events in the past year.

Two years ago, the state Supreme Court race was a nail-biter that dragged on for months amid legal challenges. This contest may not turn out to be that close, but it checks the boxes for consequential and interesting. 

5. U.S. Senate

The placement for this race provoked the most debate at The Assembly, and readers could argue this contest should be either a lot higher or a lot lower on this list. 

On one hand, it’s no longer expected to be very competitive. Real Clear Polling shows Cooper up by an average of 9 points over Republican Michael Whatley in surveys in September. On the other hand, if Democrats take control of the U.S. Senate, it could carry important ramifications for the last two years of Trump’s presidency, particularly if there are any vacancies to fill on the U.S. Supreme Court. 

Democrats haven’t won a Senate seat in North Carolina since 2008. And if this race is decided by double digits, as some polls show as a possibility, it’d be the worst outcome for a Republican Senate candidate in this state since 1974. Less clear is whether that would have any meaningful impact on down-ballot races. Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson’s historically bad performance in the 2024 gubernatorial race didn’t seem to dissuade Republican voters from supporting GOP candidates lower on the ballot.

Cooper has never lost an election in his nearly 40 years in politics. Whatley is a first-time candidate who has made a handful of rookie mistakes. He has also stuck close to Trump, who tapped him to lead the Republican National Committee and effectively anointed him as the GOP nominee in this race.

Whatley also has been unusually selective in his media strategy for a candidate who isn’t well-known to voters. He’s largely stuck to interviews with conservative television, talk radio, and websites rather than nonpartisan news outlets. It’s also likely to be the first time in almost 30 years the two major party candidates haven’t debated.

Earlier this month, the Senate Leadership Fund, the GOP’s top super PAC for bolstering Senate candidates, pulled N.C. advertising to prioritize Kansas, Semafor reported. A Whatley campaign official also told The News & Observer it has paused TV ads and is reevaluating its messaging strategy. 

While there’s always the possibility of some wild October surprise, that seems highly unlikely to happen to Cooper, who has been in the public spotlight since his first run for public office in 1986.

6. House District 25

Republicans are one seat shy of a supermajority in the state House. Democrats, meanwhile, would need to flip a dozen seats to take control of the chamber.

That would take a major blue wave, but it’s not impossible. One place to watch is the Nash County seat held by GOP state Rep. Allen Chesser. This is a rematch of the 2024 battle between the incumbent and Democrat Lorenza Wilkins, a youth center co-founder who previously worked in human resources for the city of Rocky Mount.

In 2024, this race was one of a handful within the recount threshold. Given the national mood, Chesser seems more vulnerable this year.

But Democrats haven’t made Wilkins their top priority. Wilkins isn’t one of the 14 legislative races the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee is tracking in N.C. Even so, he entered the summer on a decent financial footing, with $136,000 in available cash to Chesser’s $116,000.

7. House District 37

Republican state Rep. Erin Paré of Wake County has steadily climbed up the party’s political ladder since taking office in 2021.

While she’s not in leadership, she has a lot of influence within the chamber as one of three vice chairs of the Rules Committee, which often determines bills’ chances of success.

As a co-chair of the House Appropriations Committee, she pushed for substantial pay increases for starting teachers. But she’s come under fire locally for wading into social issues, including the hiring of a transgender public school teacher.

Paré is running against Winn Decker, an education policy consultant and former deputy director for higher education at the Hunt Institute. 

Decker is campaigning on reining in electricity costs and bolstering public education spending. He also told The News & Observer that he opposes the proposed merger between WakeMed and Atrium health systems. 

Democrats have Paré among their top political targets this year, but she has a track record of winning competitive races and outperforming other Republicans. This contest will also be one of the most expensive due to the cost of ads in Raleigh’s media market.

8. House District 35

Republican state Rep. Mike Schietzelt of Wake County is perhaps the most beloved, accessible, and vulnerable freshman in his caucus. 

He fought off a proposal for toll roads along Raleigh’s Capital Boulevard and sponsored eight bills that have become law, including one opting the state into Trump’s school voucher initiative. 

His re-election campaign is a rematch against Democrat Evonne Hopkins, a family law attorney he defeated by 3.2 points in 2024. 

Republicans have criticized Hopkins’ comments about Flock cameras at a candidate forum last month. “I have literally caught people cheating on their spouses by accessing this data,” she said. “That’s how readily available the information about you is.”

Republicans suggested she admitted to unlawfully accessing private data. In a statement to The Assembly, Hopkins said she didn’t break the law. “My point at the forum was about privacy: The amount of access to vehicular and personal information this technology allows should concern all of us,” she said. “I will not discuss the details of a client’s case to satisfy a political attack.”

Schietzelt has stuck with the GOP majority in all but one of the 784 votes taken thus far.

9. Senate District 7

If there is one lawmaker Democrats most want out of office, it’s Republican state Sen. Michael Lee of New Hanover County. He’s one of four senators who have thrown their names in the hat to succeed Berger as Senate leader, but the only one running in a competitive district.

Lee has been in the General Assembly since 2014, except for a two-year gap after losing in 2018. He’s steadily ascended the GOP ranks and has major influence over education policy as a staunch supporter of the private school voucher program.

Lee’s district has been redrawn several times to make it less favorable for Democrats. He won re-election in 2022 by less than 2 points, but after redistricting in 2024, he carried the district by 8.5 points.

Still, if Democratic challenger Jessica Bichler beats expectations or pulls off an upset, that could shake up the brewing Senate GOP leadership battle, so political insiders are watching this one closely.

10. Senate District 18

If Democrats are going to break the state Senate supermajority, they likely can’t lose this district.

This Wake County contest was the most competitive among the 170 state legislative races in 2024, with Democrat Terence Everitt winning by a mere 0.11 percentage points, or 128 votes.

Everitt resigned from the legislature earlier this year, and Wake Forest Commissioner Haseeb Fatmi took his place. While Fatmi is technically running as an incumbent, that’s not how the race feels. Wake Forest accounts for just 22% of the district’s population, which means he’s had less than six months to introduce himself to 154,000 new constituents.

His Republican opponent, Chris Stock, won handily in a contentious primary, thanks in part to his frequent in-person campaigning. Stock also lives in Wake Forest.

Fatmi may have a slight edge, but this race is still likely to be close.