The Assembly is tracking nine state legislative and congressional races that remain too close to call and within the state’s threshold for a recount.
Here’s a breakdown of the races and what lies ahead in the vote-counting and recount process.
What are the Races?
With all North Carolina precincts reporting, five state House, three U.S. House, and one state Senate race had two top vote-getters within 1 percentage point of one another as of Thursday night. If that holds true after provisional ballots are counted, the trailing candidate could request a recount.
The tightest race is the 5th District seat of Republican U.S. Rep. Virginia Foxx, who trails Democratic challenger Chuck Hubbard by 99 votes, or 0.04 percentage points.
In the 2024 election, Foxx defeated Hubbard by a whopping 19 points. She noted in a Facebook post that she netted 230 provisional votes over Hubbard in that contest. If history repeats itself, she could eke out a win this year.
Republican U.S. Rep. Greg Murphy is also in a close fight. He leads Democrat Raymond Smith by 233 votes, or 0.09 points.
Murphy declared victory on social media, but data the State Board of Elections released on Thursday shows as many as 2,996 provisional ballots yet to be counted in Murphy’s district, including 2,542 Election Day votes and 454 cast during early voting. A plurality of the outstanding provisionals are in Pitt County, which was where Murphy performed the worst in the district.
Republican Rep. David Rouzer also claimed a win over Democratic challenger Kimberly Hardy, despite leading by a mere 0.76 points.
In the General Assembly, six races are within recount territory. The most important seat to watch will be the one held by Republican Sen. Danny Britt of Robeson County. If Britt’s 268-vote lead holds, Republicans will keep control of the chamber. There are 828 provisional ballots outstanding in the district.
Democrats lead in all five state House races that are within the recount threshold, which are all currently represented by Republicans.
In Guilford County, Democrat Shelly Headen leads Republican state Rep. John Blust, despite losing the support of her state and local party after she called for violence against Republicans in a series of inflammatory social media posts.
In the western part of the state, Democrat Charlie Wallin is on track to unseat Republican Rep. Ray Pickett.
Former Burlington Mayor Ian Baltutis leads Republican Ryan Moffitt in Alamance County for an open seat.
In eastern North Carolina, House Deputy Majority Whip Tim Reeder trails Democrat Claire Kempner.
The closest state legislative race is the New Hanover County district held by retiring Republican state Rep. Ted Davis. Democrat Tim Merrick is ahead of Republican Dane Scalise by 0.3 percentage points, or 101 votes.
What Comes Next?
County boards of election will meet on Tuesday to review provisional ballots and count those from eligible voters. The county boards will spend the rest of the week tallying provisional ballots, as well as those cast by mail-in voters and military and overseas voters.
Provisional ballots are commonly used by people who forget their identification or show up at the wrong polling place. While provisional ballots can ultimately be rejected for a number of reasons, many more than usual could count this year.
According to the State Board of Elections, more than 1 in 8 provisional ballots through Thursday came from voters included in the state’s Registration Repair Project. Those voters had to cast a provisional ballot because their voter registration information didn’t include their driver’s license number or the last four digits of their Social Security number. But if they brought a photo ID to the polls, their vote should count.
Counties will finalize their vote totals at meetings across the state at 11 a.m. on Friday, November 13.
From there, second-place finishers whose districts are located within a single county will have until 5 p.m. on Monday, November 16 to submit requests for recounts. Those in districts stretching across multiple counties have until noon on Tuesday, November 17 to request a recount.
Under state law, legislative and congressional races must be decided by 1 percentage point or less for a recount. Once a request is made, the State Board of Elections provides county election officials with a schedule and directions.
Whichever candidate trails after a machine recount could request a second recount, which would be done manually in a random sample of voting sites. If the second recount produces enough difference that it could change the outcome of the election when the data is extrapolated, a third recount (done entirely by hand) would be triggered
The State Board of Elections is scheduled to certify results at 11 a.m. on November 24, so all the recounts are supposed to be finished by then.
Do Recounts Change Anything?
It’s unusual to see recounts materially change the results of an election. As things stand, Murphy and Foxx are in the tightest congressional races. But Britt’s might have the biggest impact on the state.
