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Through the first five days of early voting, hundreds of thousands of North Carolinians showed up to the polls, according to data from the State Board of Elections.
More than 733,000 ballots had been cast across the state as of Monday evening, with 94% of them from in-person early voting. Compared to the same time in the 2022 midterms, turnout is up more than 38% statewide.
During the first five days of in-person early voting in 2022, more than 214,000 registered Democrats showed up to vote. This year, that figure passed 327,000—a 53% increase.
The number of ballots cast by unaffiliated voters is up by 62%. Republican turnout, meanwhile, was down nearly 5%.
Black North Carolinians have proven particularly motivated to vote so far, with a 70% increase over 2022. White turnout has increased 24%.
Historically, Democrats show up to vote early in greater numbers than Republicans, while Republicans typically outpace Democrats on Election Day. But this year’s early voting gap is unusually sizable.
At this point in 2022, 8.6% of registered Democrats and 7.2% of Republicans had voted–which translated to 54,267 more ballots.
Thus far this year, however, Democrats have turned out at twice the rate of Republicans. Through Monday, 14.1% of registered Democrats cast a ballot compared to just 6.5% of Republicans, a 175,960-vote edge.
While the data shows Democrats seem far more motivated to vote earlier in the process, that’s not necessarily predictive of how the election will swing. It’s possible Democrats who would otherwise vote on Election Day are merely doing so earlier this year, and that the inverse is true for Republicans. But if the trend continues, Republicans could face insurmountable deficits in key races heading into Election Day.
Through Monday, 14.1% of registered Democrats cast a ballot compared to just 6.5% of Republicans.
Outgoing Republican U.S. Sen. Thom Tillis is already predicting a shellacking for his party. In an interview with Politico posted Tuesday, the retiring senior senator said he anticipates Election Day will amount to a “whoop-ass” for the GOP.
“In the first quarter I was hoping that it was just a little bit of bullshit that we had to work through,” Tillis said. “But when the bullshit becomes policy that’s problematic, you get this November… which I have on my countdown clock is whoop-ass. The problem that you have in politics and in life is when you deny the reality of things that are measurably true, you hasten their realization.”
