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U.S. Rep. Don Davis is in the middle of a rousing speech about reining in gas and housing costs and bringing federal dollars to Eastern North Carolina when he suddenly turns to Cassandra Conover.

“You see Sandy’s hair, don’t you?” Davis tells the crowd, indicating the bright blue-haired chair of the Nash County Democratic Party. “Unapologetically what?”

“Blue!” they reply.

This “Unapologetically Blue” rally in Rocky Mount is aimed at exciting Davis’ fellow Democrats. But even here, the two-term congressman seems keenly aware that he can’t rely on the party to get him over the finish line in his reelection bid. Republican state lawmakers redrew North Carolina’s congressional map last year in hopes of booting Davis from office.

Now, he’s walking a political tightrope, trying to engage the base while also appealing to moderates. He doesn’t shy away from his history of bucking his party and talks openly about areas where he agrees with Republicans, such as immigration. In a 24-minute stump speech, Davis didn’t mention President Donald Trump by name, but he did extend a hand across the political aisle.

“You don’t get there by yourselves,” Davis told the crowd. “We’re bringing Republicans, too, that share in this vision of Eastern North Carolina, and they want to put Eastern North Carolina first. We’re bringing in independents who are committed to putting our families first. We’re building a strong coalition, and this coalition is about the future of Eastern North Carolina.”

The 1st Congressional District is the biggest in the state, touching 25 counties and stretching from the Outer Banks to Oxford. Traveling from one end of the district to the other involves a 5 ½-hour drive and a ferry ride. “It is a journey,” Davis said.

Republican state lawmakers adopted a new congressional map in 2025 that put Democratic Rep. Don Davis in an expansive 1st District that stretches across 25 counties.

Democrats have held the seat for the past 127 years, with a Black Democrat representing the area since 1992. If the 2024 election had been held under the new map, Trump would have won the district by 11.6 points.

Republican Army veteran Laurie Buckhout, who narrowly lost to Davis in 2024, is hoping for a better outcome in the rematch. Davis, meanwhile, stands to benefit from Trump’s weak approval ratings and a rising tide for Democrats. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report lists this as one of 17 toss-up House races across the country. 

That has made this one of the most-watched races this year. Federal data collected by political researcher Rob Pyers showed Democratic and Republican political groups had spent $40.6 million on the race as of October 25, the most expensive House race in the country in terms of outside spending. Both candidates started October with roughly $2 million in cash on hand.

David McLennan, a Meredith College political scientist, sees Davis with a slight edge this year.

“By and large, this is an election about Donald Trump and the direction of the country, and Buckhout is just on the wrong side of that equation, and Davis is on the right side,” McLennan said.

Buckhout, who agreed months ago to be interviewed ahead of the November election, didn’t respond to requests for this story. Her campaign has largely avoided local news interviews in recent months, relying instead on appearances at local GOP meet-ups and high-profile events alongside Trump, Vice President JD Vance, and U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson to get her message out. She has highlighted her role working on cyber policy in the Trump administration.

Laurie Buckhout, Republican candidate for Congress in North Carolina’s 1st District, stands behind a heavy machine gun outside the Veterans Museum in Tarboro in 2024. (Matt Ramey for The Assembly)

At a rally with Trump in Greenville last week, Buckhout pressed Republicans to vote early and not wait until Election Day.

“Every vote banked early is one less vote we have to chase on Election Day,” she told the crowd.

Bucking the Party

The outcome of the 1st District contest could make or break the GOP’s current narrow majority in the U.S. House. Speaking at an event in New Bern alongside Johnson this month, Buckhout sought to make the race a referendum on the final two years of Trump’s legislative agenda. 

“A vote for Don Davis is a vote to make Hakeem Jeffries speaker of the House,” she said, referring to the current minority leader. “It is that simple. And that means all the good things we’ve been enjoying come to a screeching halt.”

But Davis is by no means a shoo-in vote for Democrats’ policy agenda. His independent streak predates him joining Congress. 

Don Davis waits to speak at an October event in Nash County. He’s running in one of the nation’s most competitive congressional districts. (Bryan Anderson for The Assembly)

In the state legislature, where he served for 12 years, Davis was sometimes a thorn in the side of then-Gov. Roy Cooper. In 2019, he delivered the deciding vote in the state Senate to override the governor’s veto of the “Born-Alive Abortion Survivors Protection Act,” which would have made it a felony for doctors and nurses not to care for an infant born alive after an attempted abortion in the same way they would any other child. (The measure didn’t become law that year because House Republicans didn’t have enough votes.)

When he ran for Congress in 2022, his primary opponent—Erica Smith, a former state senator who was more liberal than Davis—criticized his stance on abortion and compared him to then-Democratic U.S. Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia, who was known for bucking his party.

“Do we need another Joe Manchin that we need to wait to see if they’re ever going to come around on the issues that are life-changing for people in this state?” Smith said of Davis. 

Davis has also been unafraid to break with his party in Washington.

GovTrack, which analyzes congressional members’ voting history, ranks Davis as the most conservative Democrat in the U.S. House. The site shows Davis with a voting history to the right of several dozen Republicans.

Signs promoting Democratic Rep. Don Davis outside an event in Rocky Mount. (Bryan Anderson for The Assembly)

Most recently, Davis was one of eight Democrats to back a resolution from House Republicans condemning socialism.

“I really try to be an independent voice,” Davis reflected in an interview with The Assembly after the Rocky Mount event. “Maybe to the point that, you know, it takes me longer to explain the vote.”

Buckhout and national Republican groups have taken aim at him for some tough votes on which he did side with other Democrats.

Last year, Davis opposed the president’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act due to Medicaid cuts that are set to go into effect after the November election. GOP Sen. Thom Tillis voted against it for similar reasons.

Davis said his concerns over health care costs outweighed other parts of the bill that he supported, including provisions to prevent workers from paying taxes on tips or overtime pay. And he thinks voters will reward him for that stance. A poll released last month by the Associated Press and the health policy nonprofit KFF found that rural voters are concerned about health care costs. 

“In many ways, this election is coming down to HR1,” Davis said, referring to the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.

But Republicans have hammered him for his vote, highlighting the more popular portions of the bill.

Republican Laurie Buckhout formally files to run for Congress. (Bryan Anderson for The Assembly)

“Congressman Don Davis voted against the working families tax cuts,” a woman says in a GOP ad that aired over the summer. “And that bill cut taxes on overtime, which I need to provide for my family.”

Buckhout echoed the talking point during her rally with Trump last week. 

“For 143 years, one political machine has dominated this region, and today that machine has a name: Do Nothing Don Davis,” Buckhout said. “When working families needed tax relief, Don Davis voted no. When tipped workers wanted to keep more of their tips, he voted no. When small businesses needed room to grow, he voted no.”

Playing Defense

While Buckhout has forced him to explain that vote, Davis has also gone out of his way to highlight areas where he agrees with Trump. 

In 2025, Davis was the lone House member to vote “present” on the Protection of Women and Girls in Sports Act; nearly all other Democrats voted against it. Davis said that while he supports limits on sports participation to the gender corresponding to a person’s sex assigned at birth, he felt the measure went too far in its enforcement. 

“Let’s be honest, there’s real concerns about fairness and safety,” he says in a campaign ad on the issue. “That’s why I believe states should decide what’s right for protecting women and girls, and North Carolina has decided.”

Don Davis is ranked as the most-conservative Democrat in the U.S. House during the 2025-2026 session. (Bryan Anderson for The Assembly)

Davis told The Assembly he supports a state law preventing male students from playing on middle school, high school, or collegiate athletics teams designed for females, women, or girls. Cooper vetoed it in 2023, but the legislature overrode him.

Davis also voted for additional funding for Immigration and Customs Enforcement in January, amid the administration’s heightened immigration enforcement operation.

“If the president’s right on a policy and it’s something you support and believe in, then you support it,” Davis said. “I believe the president’s done a great job at bringing the numbers down in terms of the border crossings.”

One area where Davis—who served in the Air Force before becoming mayor of Snow Hill at age 29—disagrees with Trump is what role the U.S. ought to take in overseas conflicts. While Trump has said he wants Ukraine to make a deal to end its war with Russia, Davis’ position hasn’t changed. He continues to push for more spending to help Ukraine defend itself.

Democratic Rep. Don Davis likely will need to attract votes from outside his party to hold onto his congressional seat. He said at a Nash County Democratic Party event that he’s working to bring more federal dollars to the district. (Bryan Anderson for The Assembly)

Meanwhile, Davis opposes the latitude Congress has afforded Trump in the president’s escalating war with Iran. In July, Davis and four House Republicans supported a resolution directing Trump to “remove the use of United States Armed Forces from hostilities against the Islamic Republic of Iran,” unless the president receives congressional approval. 

Buckhout, who served in the Trump administration last year as deputy assistant secretary of defense for cyber policy, praised Trump’s handling of foreign conflicts during a February primary debate. In more recent interviews, she said she supports the war with Iran.

“As a national security person, I have to lean into the fact that war with Iran, or this ongoing tussle with Iran, whatever we want to call it, is definitely worth it for keeping nuclear weapons out of the hands of people who are just so unstable,” she told conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt in August. 

Davis hopes asserting his independence will drown out all the outside noise between now and the November 3 election.

“You have to break out of this whole notion of … ‘You gotta stick with the party,’” Davis said. “My thing is, let’s actually look at the issue. Talk to those you’re actually representing, and then go and do everything you can to represent the people that see you and trust you to make these decisions. I believe, for me, that people will see what we’re trying to do.”

Bryan Anderson is a politics reporter for The Assembly, covering state government and anchoring our twice-weekly politics newsletter, The Caucus. He previously covered elections, voting access, and state government for WRAL-TV, The Associated Press, and The News & Observer.