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More than 2.8 million North Carolinians had cast their ballots through Sunday, a more than 31% increase over 2022, according to State Board of Elections data.
Democrats have proved the most motivated to vote thus far, casting 31.7% more ballots than at this point in the previous midterm. The number of ballots Republicans have cast is up 9.4%, while unaffiliated voters have cast 52.3% more ballots.
Black voters were also highly motivated in early turnout, with a 48.4% increase in mail-in and in-person early ballots cast through Sunday compared to 2022. White voters have cast 20% more ballots.
Voting totals are up in all but three of North Carolina’s 100 counties: Alexander (-14%), Columbus (-4.6%), and Alleghany (-1.5%).
Ten counties saw a greater than 40% increase: Hyde (69.3%), Cabarrus (48.6%), Hertford (47%), Currituck (46.9%), Mecklenburg (45.8%), Duplin (44.6%), Franklin (42.6%), Onslow (42%), Avery (41.5%), and Wake (41.4%).
Cabarrus, Mecklenburg, and Wake stand out the most, as they have somewhat competitive state legislative races–two House, two Senate in Wake; two House and one Senate in Cabarrus; and one House and one Senate in Mecklenburg. Most of those seats are currently held by Republicans.
Even so, early voting numbers aren’t necessarily predictive.
North Carolina Democrats tend to turn out for early voting, while Republicans often make up ground on Election Day. Unaffiliated voters, meanwhile, are the biggest voting bloc in the state and currently account for 35% of the ballots cast through Sunday.
It’s also unclear how many people who would have voted on Election Day chose to cast their ballots earlier in the process this year, and how many are irregular voters who are particularly enthusiastic this year. And of course, a voter’s party affiliation doesn’t guarantee they’ll check the boxes for every candidate down the ballot.
While Democrats will almost certainly pick up seats in the legislature, the extent of the damage for Republicans remains to be seen.
So far, this election is looking comparable to President Donald Trump’s last midterm election in 2018, when Democrats performed well at the state and national level. That year, Democrats had a 12.19-points advantage over Republicans in early voting. This year, Democrats have a 12.22-point edge.
What’s different this time, however, is the overall increase in voters who are unaffiliated. Compared to this time in 2018, turnout is up 13.9 points among registered Democratic voters, 2.3 points among Republicans, and 6.9 points among unaffiliated voters. That means Republicans likely have more ground to make up on Election Day than they did in 2018.
