In District 11, It’s Underdog v. Underdog

Under normal circumstances, the 11th Congressional District shouldn’t be competitive. Donald Trump carried it with 54.2% of the vote in 2024—a stronger showing than he had in any congressional district in the U.S. currently represented by a Democrat. The district’s Republican U.S. Rep. Chuck Edwards did even better, at 56.8%.

But Edwards is no longer the Republican candidate, and these are not normal circumstances.

A little more than a week ago, the U.S. House Ethics Committee recommended that Edwards be censured over what it called “persistent unprofessional and inappropriate conduct towards two young female staffers.” At 3:32 a.m. last Wednesday, the congressman posted on X that he was withdrawing his re-election bid. 

A week later, a group of Republicans from the district selected Jennifer Balkcom, a second-term member of the state House, to replace Edwards on the ballot.

Now Balkcom faces an uphill sprint to Election Day in a district that should strongly favor the GOP. How is that possible?

The Money Gap

First, there’s the money.

At the end of the last quarter, Democratic candidate Jamie Ager had more than $2 million on hand. That’s more than twice as much as Edwards’ previous Democratic challenger, Caleb Rudow, raised in the entirety of his 2024 run.

Balkcom may be able to raise enough to run a credible campaign, but it’s hard to imagine her getting close to Ager’s numbers—which will certainly continue to grow now that the race has gotten so much national attention.

Balkcom has some fundraising experience, but her cash totals in her first two elections pale in comparison to many other state legislators who have been in office longer and have more power. She is not a prodigious fundraiser—to be fair, she hasn’t had to be—but she’ll need to kick it into a new gear to match Ager. 

Edwards won’t be of much help. He had roughly half a million dollars on hand at the end of the last quarter, but his direct contributions are limited to $2,000. 

Edwards could also give some of that money to a party committee or an outside group spending on Balkcom’s behalf, but he doesn’t have to. For example, Democrat Moe Davis gave the leftover money from his unsuccessful 2020 campaign in the 11th District to charity.

The Name Game

Then there’s the name recognition—or lack thereof.

Nationally, about one in five people can recall the name of their state legislator. Let’s assume Balkcom does a little better than that—say 25% of voters in her Henderson County district could name her without being prompted. But Henderson includes only 12% of the registered voters in the district. That would mean that only about 3% of voters across the 11th District could come up with her name.

That’s likely a low estimate, since her selection as Edwards’ replacement has made national headlines. But the lack of widespread name recognition that months of campaigning can cultivate presents a real problem for a candidate who is starting with fewer than 90 days before the election.

Balkcom can’t just shake a few hands and run ads on local television to solve the problem, either. The 11th District is larger than Delaware, and depending on where voters live, their television stations may come from Asheville, Atlanta, Chattanooga, or Greenville, South Carolina.

Plus, as state Rep. Brian Turner told The Assembly in 2022, “Western North Carolina is the land of retail politics. It’s showing up, it’s shaking hands, it’s being at the fish fries, it’s visiting the different churches, it’s being at Coon Dog Day.”

All of those activities take time.

Ager faced the same problem when he decided to take on Edwards, but at this point he has had the benefit of months of campaigning.

Political consultants are known to hate yard signs with a passion normally reserved for Duke basketball, but in an open seat race with no incumbent they can raise name recognition. And it’s nearly impossible to drive Western North Carolina’s backroads and highways without seeing Ager for Congress printed in white letters on a green background.

Ager also has a family name that has long been associated with local politics. His father, John Ager, served in the North Carolina House and ran for the state Senate last cycle. His brother Eric Ager serves in the state House and, while he’s not one of the most prominent members, he got some media coverage during Hurricane Helene. That’s a lot of mentions of the Ager name in the local media, even if they weren’t talking about Jamie. Some of it likely imprinted on voters’ brains.

And while Ager’s maternal grandfather Jamie Clarke doesn’t share his last name, he was the second-to-last Democrat to represent the 11th District in Congress—Clarke served from 1983 to 1985 and again from 1987 to 1991. Old-timers in the region may remember Clarke and connect his grandson with a traditional “mountain Democrat” who used to rule the roost west of Hickory.

It’s perhaps notable that Clarke, like Ager, used green signs in his advertising.

National Headwinds, Local Advantages

Balkcom also faces the same headwinds buffeting Republicans nationally. The president’s party almost always loses seats during midterm elections, and Trump’s declining approval rating reflects a growing dissatisfaction with his performance in office. A relatively unpopular war in Iran and a general sense that the economy is not doing well will only help Democrats—including Ager.

Still, the district maintains a Republican lean. Further, as the first GOP woman to be nominated from the 11th, Balkcom might symbolize a new era for a party and a district that has grown tired of conversations about what constitutes appropriate relationships between male superiors and their staffers.

Matt Ballance, a former chair of the 11th Congressional District Democratic Party and partner at Anchor Point Campaigns, told The Assembly: “There is a real chance that Balkcom can pull back voters—especially unaffiliated voters and moderate Republicans—that Edwards had lost to Ager. Jamie can still win this race, but he and his team need to make sure that they are not taking anything for granted and to work even harder than they were when Edwards was still the nominee.”

The strongest argument for Balkcom may have nothing to do with the candidate. Republicans have won seven consecutive congressional elections here, all with substantial margins. Other than Buncombe County, home of liberal Asheville, every county in the district has voted for the Republican presidential candidate since 2012.

Democrats think they have a shot, but the district still has a pinkish hue.

This leaves Ager and Balkcom in a similar but unusual situation: both have a credible claim to the title of “underdog.”

Ager’s claim is bolstered by the recent political history of the district. To win, he must separate himself from the national party’s brand and pitch himself as a mountain Democrat—precisely the same argument his grandfather made more than 40 years ago.

Balkcom’s argument for the underdog status is tied to the short runway she has to build a campaign and the massive fundraising disadvantage she’d have to overcome.

In this most unusual of elections, both may be right.