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University Cuts Under The Trump Administration
This story is part of a project exploring how cuts to various funding sources under the Trump administration have impacted N.C. colleges and universities. You can read our takeaways or explore the data yourself below.
5 Takeaways From Our Analysis of Trump’s Higher Ed Cuts
The potential changes are substantial, and they go beyond the most prestigious schools. But the enduring uncertainty may be the biggest impact.
How Much Could Trump’s Cuts Cost Your College?
We crunched the numbers on five significant higher ed cuts from the Trump administration’s first year.
All data comes from the 2023-2024 academic year, except for estimates of endowment tax changes for Duke University and Davidson College, which are from 2024-25.
Research
The existing losses category includes the unspent portions of all grants listed as terminated or frozen by Grant Witness, a project compiling government reports of canceled grants and crowd-sourced updates from principal investigators, as of January 26, 2026. Grants listed as “possibly reinstated” were not included.
Federal research totals come from the 2024 National Science Foundation’s Higher Education Research and Development (HERD) Survey. If institutions did not complete the 2024 edition, their 2023 totals were used instead.
Current indirect costs were estimated by multiplying the reimbursement rate listed on university websites or federal contracts by the HERD totals. We assumed the indirect cost rate from National Institutes of Health grants applied to all federal grants.
If reimbursement rates couldn’t be found, we reported no losses from indirect cost changes.
Financial Aid
Totals for the Parent PLUS and Grad PLUS loan programs were taken from Federal Student Aid’s Direct Loan Volume by School report.
To estimate the amount of Parent PLUS revenue above the new borrowing limits, we calculated the average amount per borrower by dividing the total amount of PLUS loans originated by the number of recipients at each school. If the average loan amount was larger than the new limits, we multiplied the overage by the number of recipients.
Our high estimate, which projects losses if schools lose 40% of total revenue from PLUS borrowers who exceed new borrowing caps, was calculated as a 40% reduction in Parent PLUS revenue for schools whose average loan amount surpassed the cap.
For Grad PLUS loans, we defined professional degrees as any program in the Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS) doctor’s professional practice category, which includes chiropractic, dentistry, medicine, optometry, osteopathic medicine, pharmacy, podiatry, veterinary medicine, and law programs. We also included master’s degrees and doctor’s professional practice degrees in theology, to match the current draft rule.
To determine the cost of nonprofessional graduate degrees, we used the average graduate tuition and fees reported in IPEDS. Theology degrees were also assumed to charge the average graduate amount.
To estimate the amount of revenue over the limits from those programs, we multiplied the average graduate costs by an estimate of the number of graduate borrowers who weren’t in either professional or Ph.D. programs, calculated using the method below.
Because schools often charge significantly different tuition amounts for other professional programs, we used weighted averages to estimate the average professional cost of attendance. We used IPEDS data to calculate the percentage of total graduate degree completions accounted for by each professional program, then multiplied the tuition and fees for each program—also sourced from IPEDS—by that ratio and added them together.
For public schools, we used the same method to create two separate average costs: one for in-state and one for out-of-state, which are reported separately in IPEDS.
To estimate the amount of professional Grad PLUS revenue over the new borrowing limits, we compared those average costs to the new limits and multiplied the overage by an estimate of the number of graduate borrowers in all professional programs.
For public schools, we weighted the average prices by the percentage of total graduate students who are from inside and outside North Carolina, as reported in the University of North Carolina System data dashboard.
To determine the total graduate revenue from students borrowing over the cap, we used the same method as above, except we used the full cost estimate rather than the difference between that and the borrowing limit.
International Enrollment
We used IPEDS data on nonresident enrollment, split into full-time and part-time undergraduates and graduates. We assumed that international undergraduates and master’s students pay full tuition, part-time undergraduates take nine credit hours, and part-time graduate students take six credit hours.
This method likely overestimates revenue in one way and underestimates it in another.
IPEDS’ nonresident category includes all noncitizen students, not just those attending on a student visa. In other words, green card holders and those with certain work visas living in North Carolina are counted as nonresidents, even though they already live in state and can receive in-state tuition at public schools. By assuming those students pay full price, our method likely overestimates revenue.
On the other hand, international students on student visas are typically not allowed to attend school part-time, but we assume those students do so at the same rate as the school overall, which may underestimate revenue.
Given constraints on the data available, we think this method is the best available.
Because Ph.D. students typically receive fellowships and other financial aid, we did not include them in revenue estimates. To factor them out, we used IPEDS data to determine the percentage of graduate degree completions for a Ph.D. and subtracted that number out of the graduate student totals.
We estimated the cost using the average tuition and fees listed in IPEDS, either full-time or by credit hour.
Medicaid Spending
Patient revenues are cited from each university or health system’s financial audits. Duke, UNC-Chapel Hill, and Wake Forest all list Medicaid revenue directly; we estimated ECU’s by multiplying the Medicaid portion of the payer mix by the total patient revenue.
Duke and Wake Forest include their health systems on their university audits, while UNC-CH and ECU do not. For parity with other schools, we show all four both with and without hospital revenue.
To estimate university-only total revenue for Duke and Wake Forest, we calculated the IPEDS definition from their financial audits, minus hospital revenue. That definition includes tuition and fees; government appropriations, grants and contracts; private gifts, grants, and contracts; contributions from affiliated entities; investment return (income, gains, and losses); sales and services of educational activities and auxiliary enterprises; independent operations revenue; and other revenue.
To show UNC-CH and ECU with hospital revenues, we added the total revenue listed in the respective health system’s audits to the total revenue listed in IPEDS for each school.
Endowment Tax
The current endowment tax was estimated by multiplying the investment return listed in each school endowment’s financial audits by the current 1.4% rate. Duke’s future endowment tax amount was calculated assuming it would have the same returns again next year while being taxed at the 4% rate.
