5 Takeaways From Our Analysis of Trump’s Higher Ed Cuts

Administrators, faculty, staff, and students at the nation’s colleges and universities spent the first year of Donald Trump’s second term careening from one headline-making announcement to another. The sheer quantity of changes, updates, and reversals was hard to follow.

To get our heads around it, we embarked on a data analysis project, gathering financial information about all colleges and universities in the state and modeling multiple scenarios for how the most substantial changes might affect their bottom line. You can explore the data yourself, but here’s what stood out to us.

1. A lot is still up in the air.

Our total estimated potential annual losses for the 168 schools we analyzed range from $1.4 billion to $2.2 billion. 

The lion’s share of those losses have not actually come to fruition. 

We found that at least $240 million in grants has already been canceled, which represents immediate budget holes for North Carolina universities, plus another $49 million in estimated lost revenue from the decline in international enrollment this year. The rest of the projections depend on future decisions by state and federal courts and legislatures.

Around half of the estimated potential losses—between $700 million and $1.1 billion—stems from the administration’s attempt to slash the reimbursement rate universities receive for indirect costs on federal research grants. Courts have thus far ruled against the White House on the issue, and Congress blocked the major federal funding agencies from enacting the policy this fiscal year. As the court case continues, a group of universities is also preparing a proposal for a new model to handle those costs, which is designed to find a middle ground with the White House. Congress has signaled support for it.

Cuts to Medicaid at the four universities with health systems—UNC-Chapel Hill, Duke University, East Carolina University, and Wake Forest University—account for another significant chunk of potential losses. We estimated $296 million on the low end, rising to $565 million if the cuts end up rolling back North Carolina’s Medicaid expansion—which experts say will happen unless the General Assembly takes action before the Medicaid changes are fully implemented over the next few years.

2. What didn’t happen may be as important as what did.

The change to reimbursement rates isn’t the only threat that has ebbed some.

Many researchers were worried that federal agencies had simply stopped giving out new grants for many months, but they made up for the lag by the end of the year. There has been a slow start to 2026 funding, but a similar uptick seems to be taking place in at least some agencies.

Congress also pushed back on other threats, rejecting the White House’s call to cut research funding and reduce the maximum Pell grant award, which goes to low-income students. 

The North Carolina Community College System fares particularly well in our models, with basically no potential losses. That’s a far cry from last fall, when fears about the impact of Trump’s policies led The New York Times to cover the collateral damage at Durham Tech.

Some of the difference may stem from the fact that we didn’t include small, one-off grants and programs that may have large repercussions for particular community colleges. But it’s also because some of the looming threats, such as broader changes to Pell grant eligibility and federal programs that fund outreach and student support, have dissipated, at least for the moment.

3. The hardest-hit colleges may not be the ones you expect.

Massive threatened cuts to research funding have led many to focus on the risks to major research universities like UNC-CH and Duke. While they do top the list for the total amount of dollars on the line, some smaller schools have a larger portion of their budgets at risk when other cuts are included in the analysis—and their budgets were likely already far more constrained.

Campbell University stands out when it comes to potential losses due to changes to loan programs. More than half of the university’s tuition and fee revenue comes from the Parent PLUS and Grad PLUS loan programs, driven by its substantial law and osteopathic medicine schools. But Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act overhauled both programs, creating borrowing limits that could make it difficult for some students to afford Campbell’s tuition. 

Because tuition revenue makes up a much larger portion of the overall budget at Campbell than it does for a major research university, the school may ultimately face more risk than a place like Duke. Our high-end estimates show Duke could lose 9.2% of its revenue once all the cuts are implemented, while Campbell could lose up to 9.5%.

Spokespeople from Campbell and Duke both declined to comment on this story.

4. Some colleges escaped relatively unscathed.

On the other hand, small colleges that haven’t leaned on expensive graduate programs and international students to balance the budget may be breathing comparatively easier these days.

Just 6% of Davidson College’s revenue comes from areas that Trump’s major policies have impacted, and its high-end estimate of potential losses is just 1% of total revenue. The fact that it ended up with a tax break on its $1.4 billion endowment instead of a hike helps, too.

Being a liberal arts college focused on teaching and mentoring with a “minimal reliance on federal research funding uniquely positions us in this moment to prepare students for lives of leadership and service,” said Jay Pfeifer, Davidson’s director of media relations. 

Catawba College—with its outsized fundraising of late, bringing in two $200 million gifts between 2021 and 2024—appears similarly well positioned. A spokesperson did not respond to questions.

5. The uncertainty alone is a challenge.

The fact that some threats have ebbed doesn’t mean things are easy at the state’s colleges these days. The massive spread between low-end and high-end potential outcomes lends its own type of damage.

At UNC-CH, the difference amounts to more than $5,000 per student. Many colleges and universities receive more than a fifth of their total revenue from areas that the Trump administration is attempting to reconfigure. Planning for the future, in that context, can feel Sisyphean.