Parties Poured Millions Into a Wilmington Race. The Incumbent Won Easily.

At the New Hanover County GOP watch party Tuesday night, people clamored for pictures with two politicians: a life-size cardboard cutout of President Donald J. Trump, and state Sen. Michael Lee. 

Both would later turn out to have sweeping victories. 

State Senate District 7 was the Cape Fear region’s most expensive local race, with both party machines funneling in a combined $3.2 million, not counting any donations from outside groups or individual fundraising. 

Lee won comfortably by a nearly 9-point margin and outraised his Democratic opponent, physician David Hill, roughly 2 to 1. 

The depth of Lee’s victory came as a surprise in a district that has remained fiercely competitive under a 2-point margin for the past six years. After his first two elections for the seat in 2014 and 2016, when he won by more than 10-point margins, Lee lost to Harper Peterson in 2018 by just 231 votes. Lee went on to take back the seat in a 2020 rematch with a 1-point lead and secured it again in 2022 by a nearly 2-point advantage. 

The state Republican Party considered District 7 one of three key state Senate races needed to retain their supermajority, and among those must-win Senate seats, the party handed the most campaign funding to Lee. If results hold, the GOP picked up an extra Senate seat, bringing its majority to 31-19, but lost one seat in the state House, enough for Democrats to break the supermajority there. Now, Republicans won’t be able to override gubernatorial vetos unless they can net some crossover votes. 

Despite the statewide pressure on his race, Lee was calm Tuesday night while waiting for results to trickle in.

“We feel really good,” he said. “It is not unusual in any race that I’ve been in this district that lots and lots of money has come in … but I’m really just focused on just my constituents.”

Before any results had been called—save for Gov.-elect Josh Stein, a predictable landslide—New Hanover County GOP executive director Harry Knight was confident Lee would easily win. “I think Mike Lee will comfortably carry that race,” Knight said. “In a purple county like we are, it comes right down to just everyday, common-sense issues. Go to fill up your car today. How’s that feel? Want to go to the grocery store? How’s that feel? … In a purple district like we are, those issues tend to win today.”

A father of four, education has been a priority of Lee’s over his tenure, and this year he has championed expanding private school vouchers. He said he hopes to spend his next term expanding on his education-related initiatives. “Education reform has been on my agenda since before I started running,” he said. 

District 7 includes most of New Hanover County, a politically diverse region that neither party can fully claim. This week New Hanover County voters picked Vice President Kamala Harris by just a 0.3-point margin–continuing a new Democratic presidential trend. Voters first broke the county’s 44-year Republican presidential streak in 2020.

Lee’s district was drawn to exclude downtown Wilmington, meaning thousands of liberal-leaning voters live in the Republican stronghold of District 8, held by Sen. Bill Rabon. New Hanover County District 8 voters—living in the so-called Wilmington Notch—cast 2,910 votes for Sen. Rabon and 10,580 votes for his Democratic opponent, Katherine Randall, though Rabon won handily in reliably red Brunswick and Columbus counties with an overall 20-point lead.

“Were it not for that racist gerrymander, Lee would probably be toast,” said Blair Reeves, executive director of Carolina Forward, a left-leaning think tank. 

Theoretically, assuming “Notch” voters kept the same partisan slant, Hill would have finished ahead of Sen. Lee by 268 votes. 

Nonetheless, Lee says District 7 remains a tough fight. “People talk about [gerrymandering], but this is still one of the most competitive districts in the state,” Lee said Tuesday night. “It’s a purple district, and so it’s hard for folks to say that somehow this is not a very competitive race, because it is very competitive.”

Aaron King, UNC-Wilmington political science professor, said he was surprised results for District 7 weren’t closer. 

The prolific campaign ads—Lee’s zeroed in on transgender-related issues, while Hill’s hit Lee on abortion—all surrounded national topics. “So much of local politics has been politicized and polarized,” King said. “You just see the vitriol there is. But I also think that there has to be a limit of that,” he said, pointing to the possibility that voters rejected the further right-leaning county school board candidates for being a step too far out of voters’ comfort zones.

The state GOP’s internal polling showed potential voters most negatively reacted to Hill’s stances on transgender issues, which advertisements latched onto. In August, Hill tried to get Lee to stop the ads by sending a legal letter, but Lee’s team persisted. 

Last year, Lee and his former opponent, Marcia Morgan, entered a settlement agreement after Lee sued her in a defamation suit over a campaign ad that alleged he used his office for personal gain. Ironically, Lee argued Morgan’s ad was defamatory for attacking Lee in his professional capacity as a lawyer—a similar complaint Hill lodged against Lee for his “quack liberal” ads, which Hill argued implied he was a quack doctor. “In our opinion and in our lawyers’ opinion, that crossed a similar line,” Hill said. 

Given Morgan’s experience last year, Hill said his campaign team was intentionally cautious in its advertisements this cycle. And while they sent the letter warning of legal action, Hill’s team never fought the issue further or publicly elaborated on his past statements that Lee’s team attacked. “When it comes to political speech, everything is protected, including things that are in essence lies,” Hill said. “There is very little point in bringing political speech in the courts.”

Lee said he’s known Hill for 20 years, and the two remain cordial, despite the heated ad rhetoric. “That surprises people for some reason,” Lee said. He added he thinks the level of intensity seen in the race this year isn’t much different from previous campaigns in the district. 

In a statement Wednesday morning, Hill said he will continue to fight for the values his campaign championed. “This movement isn’t about one election—it’s about the long-term work of building a better future. We won’t back down,” he said. “The fight continues.”

Johanna F. Still is The Assembly’s Wilmington editor. She previously covered economic development for Greater Wilmington Business Journal and was the assistant editor at Port City Daily.