The Caucus: What Does 2026 Have in Store?

2026 Preview

In the Legislature:

• Sheriff Spectacle: Rep. Brenden Jones has held a number of House Oversight hearings blasting public school systems and state agencies that he’s seen as defying state law or falling short on their responsibilities. But it may be January 29 when we see the most explosive hearing. Officials from the Mecklenburg County Sheriff’s Department will testify about jail conditions and diversity initiatives. (Sheriff Garry McFadden confirmed to WSOC he’d testify; the hearing was initially set for January 22 but was pushed back a week.)
• Budget Battle: It’s been more than two years since North Carolina passed a comprehensive budget. Will this year be any different? Personal income tax rates have been the biggest sticking point between the House and Senate. Leaders aren’t planning for any resolution until after the primaries, though whether the outcome will change their negotiating positions is unclear. “I think comprehensive budget talk is not going to result in a comprehensive budget until maybe the short session,” Senate leader Phil Berger told PBSNC. “We’ll see when we get back in April whether or not it does.”
• Veto Overrides: Gov. Josh Stein vetoed 15 bills last year. The legislature overrode eight of those, but seven haven’t become law since House Republicans are one seat shy of a supermajority. Assuming all Republicans are present, Stein’s vetoes could be overridden if two Democrats are absent when a vote is called. Will House Democrats be able to keep all 49 members in Raleigh this year? This could be something to monitor, especially if House Speaker Destin Hall doesn’t release a monthslong advance calendar as he did last year.

On the Trail:

• Senate Grip: The outcome of the Senate District 26 contest between Berger and GOP challenger Sam Page will have major ramifications for the state. Even the prospect of the state’s top Republican being ousted has created ripple effects, and President Donald Trump waded into the race by endorsing Berger. Will the voters in the Trump-heavy district follow their leader’s guidance, or will they try to move the state in a new direction? 
• House Turnover: More than 42% of House Republicans either have a contested primary or aren’t seeking reelection. This paves the way for sizable turnover in the chamber come 2027. By contrast, just 23% of Senate Republicans, 18% of House Democrats, and 10% of Senate Democrats have a contested primary or aren’t running. Two questions come to mind: 1. What will the departing Republicans do with their final year in office? and 2. How will a new cast of characters entering in 2027 impact Hall’s grip in the chamber?
• Races to Watch: As we get closer to the primaries, I’ll release a list of races to watch and why. If you have any suggestions of primaries that should make the cut because of their competitiveness, importance, or quirkiness, shoot me a note.

– Bryan Anderson

Thanks for reading The Caucus, a politics newsletter anchored by Bryan Anderson. Reach us with tips or ideas at politics@theassemblync.com.

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Will the Real Recovery Czar Please Stand Up?

During candidate filing on December 2, reporters asked Republican U.S. Senate candidate Michael Whatley about his role in helping Western North Carolina recover from Hurricane Helene and the “recovery czar” title that Democrats have used as a point of attack against him.

“The title came from the Democrats choosing to call it that,” Whatley said.

He added that Trump asked him in January 2025 to serve as a liaison between the state and federal government. 

“[Trump] asked me if I would be willing to help make sure that the needs of Western North Carolina were being relayed to the administration and that the relief from the administration was going to get into Western North Carolina,” Whatley said.

On the campaign trail with supporters the following week, however, Whatley shared a different account, according to audio obtained by The Assembly.

During a December 13 campaign stop at the Iredell County Republican Men’s Club meeting, Whatley told local Republicans that it was Trump who dubbed him the recovery czar.

Whatley said that in January 2025, Trump told him, “‘Michael, I need your help to be able to get relief into Western North Carolina.’ I said, ‘Yes, sir, I’m happy to help. I’ll do whatever I can. So we’ll talk with your staff, we’ll sort this out. We’ll figure out what is an appropriate role. We’ll get all that squared away.’ 

“So we get off the plane, he sees a bank of 20 reporters, he walks up to them and goes, ‘I want to let you all know I’ve just named Michael Whatley as the hurricane recovery czar for Western North Carolina.’”

Jonathan Felts, a spokesman for Whatley, said Trump “asked Michael to help monitor the federal response” and later appointed him to the FEMA Review Council. Felts said the council will soon release a report to the White House “on how federal disaster relief can be administered more effectively so other states won’t suffer as N.C. did under the failed Biden-Cooper response.”

Former Gov. Roy Cooper, who has come under fire from Republicans for his track record on hurricane recovery, is the presumptive Democratic nominee for the U.S. Senate.

— Bryan Anderson

Health Scares

Democratic Supreme Court Justice Anita Earls announced this week that she was diagnosed with breast cancer late last year and had surgery over the holidays. Earls said in a video that her campaign will continue, as her prognosis is positive thanks to early detection at a routine mammogram.

“This will not impact my ability to serve as your justice on the court,” Earls said. “My campaign team and I are still working hard. We are not slowing down. We are not losing focus. This is just a bump in the road on the way to a win this November.”

Rep. Sarah Stevens, a Surry County Republican who will face Earls in the general election, is a two-time breast cancer survivor. 

“I’ve been past my treatment for a while now [and am] healthy, happy, good,” Stevens told me last month after filing her candidacy paperwork.

“That kind of journey does put things in perspective,” Stevens said. “It does say, ‘What am I supposed to be doing today? What am I supposed to be doing tomorrow? What do I do in the role that I’m in?’ It’s clearly trying to define those roles.”

— Bryan Anderson

Power Struggle

In a split decision this week along party lines, the state Court of Appeals overturned a three-judge panel’s ruling that had restored Gov. Stein’s ability to fill statewide judicial vacancies.

Now, if a vacancy occurs at the state Supreme Court or Court of Appeals, Stein must choose from a list of candidates supplied to him by the political party of the departing judge or justice.

— Anne Blythe

A High-Court Press

State prosecutors filed a petition this week asking the North Carolina Supreme Court to review a judge’s order exonerating four men convicted as teenagers of murdering NBA star Chris Paul’s grandfather.

Prosecutors concede they are asking the state’s highest court to do something out of the ordinary in bypassing the North Carolina Court of Appeals, which initially hears most criminal appeals.

— Michael Hewlett

Let us know what’s on your radar at politics@theassemblync.com.

Around the State: A dozen counties have disputes over their early voting plans going before the State Board of Elections next Tuesday. What are the issues at play? (Carolina Public Press); Republican leaders don’t want regime change in Venezuela to overshadow the party’s efforts to improve the economy heading into the midterms (NOTUS); Auditor Dave Boliek told lawmakers this week that cutting vacant jobs in state government jobs could free up $1 billion (WRAL).

Upcoming Birthdays: Reps. Frank Iler and Bill Ward on Saturday, January 10; Rep. Carla Cunningham on Monday, January 12.