The Caucus: Berger Trails Page, Poll Shows

Poll Shows Berger Down 18 in GOP Primary

Senate leader Phil Berger, long considered North Carolina’s most powerful politician, faces daunting headwinds going into next year’s Republican primary—at least according to a recent poll obtained by The Assembly and Axios Raleigh. 

The survey of 440 likely Republican voters, conducted on April 29 and 30, found Berger trailing his opponent, Rockingham County Sheriff Sam Page, by 18 percentage points. The poll has a margin of error of 4.7 percentage points.  

The primary for state Senate District 26, which covers Rockingham County and part of Guilford County, isn’t until March. Polling this far out isn’t always predictive, and Berger will have a multimillion-dollar warchest with which to fight back. Still, it’s a sign that Page, a seven-term sheriff who has tethered himself to President Donald Trump’s immigration crackdown, poses a serious political threat. 

A loss for Berger would represent a sea change in the legislature. 

Berger has represented Rockingham County in the state Senate since 2001. His fellow Republicans elevated him to minority leader in 2004, and he became the Senate’s president pro tempore in 2011 after the GOP captured the General Assembly. From that perch, Berger engineered the legislature’s rightward shift on taxes and social policies. 

The Senate leader hasn’t faced a significant primary challenge since 2002, and general elections have mostly been foregone conclusions in his conservative district. But in 2023, Berger tried to muscle through a controversial proposal that would have allowed three non-tribal casinos, including one in Rockingham County. 

Berger backed down amid a conservative backlash, but not before the move inflicted political damage. In late 2023, an anonymous poll had Page 30 points ahead of Berger in a Republican primary. (Page didn’t challenge Berger, running instead for lieutenant governor; he placed fifth in the primary. In November 2024, Berger won only 54 percent of the vote, his worst general election showing since taking office.) 

At the time the anonymous poll surfaced, Phil Berger Jr., a state Supreme Court justice and the Senate leader’s son, told Axios that Patrick Sebastian, a partner at the polling firm Opinion Diagnostics, was involved in the effort to oust Berger. Sebastian, the nephew of former Gov. Pat McCrory, declined to confirm his involvement then. 

This year, Sebastian put his name on the May 5 polling memo that showed Page up 18 points. According to the memo, which has circulated among donors and political operatives in recent weeks, Page’s lead expanded to 43 points after respondents were “exposed to information about Senator Berger’s policy positions” on casinos, public records, and work eligibility for immigrants. 

The poll also said that 40 percent of Berger voters would either back Page or become undecided if President Trump endorsed the sheriff. (There’s “not a [expletive] chance” that will happen, a source close to the Trump administration said.)  

Reached by phone on Thursday afternoon, Sebastian confirmed the poll’s authenticity. “The data reflects what conservatives already know: Phil Berger refused to back Donald Trump, pushed for an unwanted casino, weakened immigration enforcement, and passed a law letting politicians like himself delete their official public records,” he said. “That’s why he’s losing by double digits to a pro-Trump, tough-on-crime sheriff.”

It’s unclear who funded the poll.

For its part, Berger’s team dismissed the survey. “Patrick Sebastian’s new poll is about as credible as his poll two years ago showing Berger down 30 points,” spokesperson Dylan Watts said in a statement. “While they chase paychecks, Phil Berger remains focused solely on making life better for the hardworking folks back home.”

— Lucille Sherman and Jeffrey Billman […]