Ticket-Splitting is Part of Our DNA

North Carolina’s propensity for ticket-splitting is so confounding that it recently inspired conspiracy theories.

One TikToker highlighted what he viewed as North Carolina’s suspicious voting irregularities in a video that’s been viewed 2.5 million times. “Are you really trying to tell me that 352,357 Democrats decided to vote for the Democratic candidate for the governor but not for the president? Yeah, I believe that,” he said sarcastically. 

On X, a user with 1.3 million followers suggested authorities should launch an inquiry in N.C.: “As long as we don’t storm the Capitol, why can’t we DEMAND an investigation?”

Though it might be surprising—especially as the nation’s partisanship peaks—the truth is simple. Ticket-splitting may be unusual for other states, but it’s typical here. North Carolinians have a long history of voting for candidates from both parties in a single election.

“North Carolina possesses that rare political animal nowadays, the split-ticket voter,” said Michael Bitzer, chair of the Department of Politics at Catawba College. “You could say it’s in our political DNA.” 

It also reflects historical trends. Even throughout the solid Democratic-controlled early decades of the 20th century, Bitzer said North Carolina was probably the most competitive two-party state.

In general, Bitzer said the state has seen a roughly 5-to-6-point slice of the electorate engage in ticket-splitting since 2008, while the rest are partisan loyalists. As we’ve seen from close races, those small slices can make all the difference.

The Way It Is

Last week, North Carolina elected Democrat Josh Stein as its next governor by a 15-point margin, shocking next to no one who pays attention to state politics. Ignoring the controversy swirling around Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, odds are the state would have elected a Democrat anyway. Since 1992, voters have only once sent a Republican to the Executive Mansion.

On the presidential side, the odds were in Republicans’ favor. Voters here have picked a Democrat for president just twice in the past 48 years:  Jimmy Carter in 1976 and Barack Obama in 2008. 

One theory to explain these patterns is North Carolinians’ comfort with their state government–or apathy toward it, depending on how you look at it.  Republicans don’t seem to feel threatened enough by the state’s moderate-leaning Democratic governors to replace them. Democrats, meanwhile, don’t seem particularly motivated enough to tilt presidential outcomes.

As the social media users pointed out, there was a significant gap between the total votes Stein netted compared to Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris. Of all the candidates on the ballot this year, Stein by far lured the most votes, at 3 million, compared to Harris’ nearly 2.7 million. Stein’s success could be more easily explained by his opponent’s unpopularity, rather than his own draw. 

Sure, Democrats helped get Stein elected, but the state only has 2.4 million of them registered to the party, and their turnout rate this election was 60 percent. Ballot roll-off—when voters choose to vote in some races and skip out on others—is partially to blame for the gap. 

Chris Cooper, director of the Haire Institute for Public Policy at Western Carolina University, noted ballot roll-off for the gubernatorial race was more than three times higher this election than in 2020. This year, nearly 106,000 people voted for president but not governor, compared to 22,000 in the last presidential election.

Stein’s boosted results also to a smaller degree came from disaffected Republicans, who couldn’t quite stomach his opponent.

The ‘Rare Animals’

Fourteen counties across the state split their ticket this year for president and governor, according to a News & Observer analysis. That includes Alamance, one of eight counties that flipped its vote from a Republican to a Democrat for governor compared to 2020. (Only one county, Pasquotank, switched to a Republican for governor). 

On Election Day outside Harvey A. Newlin Elementary School in Burlington, 43-year-old Angel Shields said she had voted for President Donald Trump but couldn’t support Robinson. “He’s crazy,” Shields said. “I almost think he’s a little delusional.” 

Another voter outside the same polling place, Wayne Smith, an 81-year-old Republican, said he supported both Trump and Robinson, but voted for Democrat Jeff Jackson for attorney general. “He’s a veteran,” Smith explained.

At the GOP watch party on election night in Wilmington, 18-year-old first-time voter Crawford Anderson also couldn’t bring himself to support Robinson, though he voted for Trump. “Mark Robinson is not a good guy,” he said. The CNN exposé was enough to seal the deal. “I was already concerned,” he said, “but that definitely was the nail in the coffin.”

UNC-Wilmington political science professor Aaron King said looking at each candidate’s total is a clear sign that voters are exercising some level of discernment. “In some ways, it gives me a little bit of hope,” he said. “Not from a partisan standpoint, but voters are really thinking when they’re making some of these decisions.”

King said he suspects ticket-splitting wouldn’t be as pervasive had the state not eliminated straight-ticket voting as an option in 2013. Voting straight ticket previously allowed voters here to select just one bubble to pick all of a party’s candidates outside of the presidential race, an option that historically favored Democrats. Many states have eliminated it over the past decade, and only seven still allowed it as of 2022.

As for the Trump-Robinson gap, King said race could be a factor. But more broadly, enthusiasm for Trump has remained impenetrable among his core supporters, despite controversies—a status other politicians haven’t yet achieved. 

“You sort of know what you’re gonna get with Trump,” King said. “I don’t think the people are always voting for Trump because they think he’s a good person, but I think that they’re so disenchanted with what’s going on, it’s very easy to overlook a lot of stuff.”

Splitty and Swingy

While ticket-splitting is normal here, political scientist Bitzer said Robinson proved to be uniquely toxic this year. Robinson was 651,000 votes behind Trump, compared to 2020 Republican gubernatorial candidate Dan Forest’s shortfall of 172,000. 

Bitzer said it’s evident Robinson’s negative draw impacted other more MAGA-aligned Republican entrants down the ballot, citing superintendent of public instruction candidate Michele Morrow, lieutenant governor candidate Hal Weatherman, and attorney general candidate Dan Bishop.

“When elections in this state are decided on the knife’s edge, a seriously flawed candidate, who runs as extreme as they can, will clearly have an impact on North Carolina’s electorate,” Bitzer said. “And that electoral impact is a clear rejection, resulting in a seismic blow-out of epic portions not seen in a very long time.” 

Cooper, the WCU professor, said while North Carolina may not be the nation’s “swingiest” state, there’s an argument to be made that we split our tickets the most. No other state in the South did so in statewide elections this year, Cooper points out. And of the 11 gubernatorial races across the country this year, we were one of just three, with New Hampshire and Vermont, that split the ticket in gubernatorial and presidential races. 

We also split statewide Council of State races 5-5. Part of the reason, Cooper explained, is that no other state has as many statewide races on the ballot at the same time. 

“Ticket splitting isn’t a one-off in North Carolina, it’s as consistent a trend as you can find in the Old North State,” Cooper said. “With so many options, maybe it shouldn’t be a surprise that some voters would want to spread the partisan love in more than one place.”

Anne Blythe contributed to this reporting. 

Johanna F. Still is The Assembly’s Wilmington editor. She previously covered economic development for Greater Wilmington Business Journal and was the assistant editor at Port City Daily.