Republicans appear likely to spend more than $10 million to bolster state Senate leader Phil Berger’s intense reelection fight against Rockingham County Sheriff Sam Page, according to newly released fundraising reports.
Berger’s campaign and independent expenditure groups supporting him spent more than $8.6 million between the start of the primary election cycle in 2025 and February 14, the latest filings show. Combined, they still had $2 million more on hand as of mid-February—which political observers expect they will have spent by the March 3 primary.
An investment of this size for a legislative primary, which often draw roughly 20,000 voters, is unprecedented in North Carolina, political experts say.
“Absolutely nothing comes to mind at that level for that kind of a race,” said Michael Bitzer, a Catawba College political scientist. “As those of us who deal with data and statistics would probably attest to, this is an extreme outlier.”
The bulk of the spending to date has come from NC True Conservatives, an independent expenditure group primarily funded by the national Good Government Coalition (which is in turn funded by the Republican State Leadership Committee, of which Berger is a member of the executive committee). Lawrence Shaheen, a longtime Berger ally, is leading NC True Conservatives.
The group spent $5.9 million as of February 14 on Berger’s race, nearly all of it on advertising, newly released filings show. It had $720,000 in the bank as of mid-February and received an additional $350,000 on February 20. The group had additional ad contracts lined up after February 14, filings with the Federal Communications Commission show. If it spent all of its cash on hand, its total spending on Berger’s race would be just shy of $7 million.
Political groups and candidates had to report their fundraising numbers on February 24 to cover the period from January 1 to February 14, but it often takes workers at the State Board of Elections several days to process the reports. After February 14, political committees must report new donations within 48 hours of receipt. Spending that occurs between February 14 and March 3 doesn’t have to be disclosed yet, though many TV advertising contracts have already become public.
Another outside political group has taken in $710,000. Citizens for NC Jobs Action PAC, which is affiliated with the NC Chamber of Commerce and formed in January, had spent more than $333,000 on television advertising supporting Berger as of February 14.
Since January 2025, Berger’s campaign has spent more than $2.4 million. It reported having $584,000 in available cash in mid-February.
Meanwhile, a pro-Page group called the Piedmont Accountability Coalition has not released any financial disclosures. State law allows groups limited to “issue advocacy” to file disclosures less often than those that advocate for or against specific candidates. It’s not clear how the group is organized; GOP consultant Patrick Sebastian, a nephew of former Gov. Pat McCrory, leads the group and did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Since entering the race last year, Page’s campaign has raised $81,000. It had spent less than $55,000 through mid-February and had less than $27,000 in available cash.
“When you’ve got outside-backed money spending $10 million on a candidate, it makes you wonder what the obligations are to them,” Page said in an interview. “I’m obligated to the voters. We’re going to win this race not on money raised; we’re going to win it on relationships and accessibility that I’ve had with the citizens.”
Representatives for Berger’s campaign didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment. Shaheen said NC True Conservatives’ money went to a worthy cause.
“Every single dollar we have spent is worth defending the architect of North Carolina’s conservative political and business comeback story. I only wish we had more,” he said. “I hope every single unaffiliated and Republican voter in District 26 comes out and votes for him.”
It remains to be seen how Berger’s spending will affect voters’ choices. Bitzer said it’s too early to say whether it will help his prospects or have the opposite effect of turning off voters.
No vote tallies are released until all polls close on Election Day, but the State Board of Elections reports how many ballots have been cast and where. Through the end of in-person early voting on Saturday, observers said the geographic breakdown of the ballots seemed to be a bad sign for Berger. Of the 11,728 votes cast, nearly 66% of them came from Rockingham County, according to the John Locke Foundation vote tracker. The county only accounts for 43% of District 26 voters, and Page is expected to fare best on his home turf.
The rest of the ballots came from Guilford County, which makes up the remainder of the district.
Unaffiliated voters represent nearly one-third of the ballots cast thus far, and it’s not clear which of the two Republicans they will support. Another uncertainty is who will show up on Election Day.
If one thing is clear, the election will come at a steep financial and political cost, regardless of the outcome.
“Phil Berger’s network is the lifeblood of North Carolina politics, and powerful groups want to have it continue to be that way,” said Chris Cooper, a Western Carolina University political scientist. “If Phil Berger does lose, it’s going to introduce uncertainty into North Carolina politics. That is the enemy of powerful people in politics.”