Phil Berger’s Defeat to Create a Power Vacuum in the Senate

Update 03/24: On Tuesday, March 24, Berger conceded to Page.

Update 03/06: On Friday, March 6, Rockingham County and Guilford County reported provisional ballot totals showing Page had a 23-vote lead over Berger, with some mail-in ballots still uncounted.

Rockingham County Sheriff Sam Page holds a slim lead over state Senate leader Phil Berger after all precincts reported and provisional ballots were counted. In the coming days and weeks, the numbers could fluctuate. While a recount is the likeliest next step, the contest could drag on much longer.

Whatever the outcome in Senate District 26, which includes all of Rockingham County and part of Guilford County, voters have shown Berger is vulnerable.

If Page’s lead holds, Republicans will be left looking for someone to fill Berger’s shoes as the chamber’s head honcho. Berger, who has led the Senate as its president pro tempore since 2011, is widely viewed by insiders as the most powerful person in state government.

Senate Republicans are expected to maintain their majority, but they haven’t signaled a clear successor to Berger. State Sen. Bobby Hanig, a Republican from Currituck County and the only senator not seeking reelection, said in an interview, “There’s not an heir apparent at this point. I just don’t believe there is. There’s a lot of variables.”

While much uncertainty and political jockeying lie ahead, here are some of the most likely successors to Berger:

Michael Lee

Lee, who has served five terms in the Senate, represents New Hanover County, which has become something of a bellwether. In both the 2020 and 2024 elections, nine of the 10 Council of State candidates who carried the county also won their statewide bids. 

Lee has steadily climbed up the party ranks since joining the legislature in 2014. Except for a narrow defeat in a bad political environment for his party in 2018, Lee’s been in office ever since. 

He’s proven himself to be one of the most successful campaigners and policymakers in his party. He’s respected within the caucus and has helped the GOP navigate thorny issues, including measures that expanded private school vouchers, gave parents more say in how their children are taught, and reduced access to abortion.

Lee became Senate majority leader last year after Paul Newton resigned. He also chairs key budget and education committees, giving him outsize influence in how the state spends money. When the Senate finds itself at odds with the House, Lee is among a handful of leaders tasked with working out policy differences. 

Lee did not have a primary this year. For the fall election, his district leans Republican. While he could lose in a blue wave election cycle, it’s more likely that he returns to the Senate (he won in 2024 by more than 8 percentage points).

Todd Johnson

State Sen. Todd Johnson of Union County is a behind-the-scenes operator, working to keep his members united on key legislative priorities. 

He joined the legislature in 2019 and currently serves in leadership as majority whip. This gives him an advantage of being far enough away from Berger’s innermost orbit to be seen as a fresh face, but close enough to have formed alliances over the years.

Johnson is a former county commissioner who ran his family’s insurance business and now leads the chamber’s commerce and insurance committee. 

He has greater political ambitions. In 2016, he narrowly lost a three-way congressional primary to U.S. Rep. Robert Pittenger. But Johnson carried five of the eight counties and proved himself to be a successful campaigner, despite entering the contest with less name recognition and fewer financial resources. 

Johnson is seen as a strong contender to succeed Berger, especially if Lee loses his reelection bid or doesn’t want the top leadership post.

Ralph Hise

State Sen. Ralph Hise of Mitchell County has been deputy president pro tem, the second-highest ranking senator, since 2019. 

For the past seven years, he’s worked closely with Berger, which could prove to be a double-edged sword if he’s interested in moving to the No. 1 spot.

On one hand, Hise is well-connected and has been entrusted with a lot of responsibility over the years, especially with the state budget, Hurricane Helene relief, and redistricting. 

On the other hand, he’s been in office since 2011 and therefore isn’t really a fresh face if the caucus wants to move in a different direction following Berger’s defeat.

Longer Shots

State Sen. Amy Galey of Alamance County is a staunch Berger ally and the only woman in Senate GOP leadership. 

She unsuccessfully pressured Page to drop out of the race on the eve of candidate filing, according to a WRAL report; she’s not likely to win over those who want a fundamental change at the top of leadership.

If the GOP caucus were to look beyond its current leadership, it might find Danny Britt, a five-term senator from Robeson County, to be a viable option. 

On paper, Britt is in a lean-GOP district. But it’s become a fairly safe seat since he’s taken office. He’s consistently exceeded electoral expectations and has amassed a sizable social media following and campaign war chest, with nearly $557,000 in available cash as of February 14.

Since joining the legislature in 2017, Britt has formed strong alliances with law enforcement groups and worked his way up to a judiciary committee chairmanship. Britt’s resources and political connections could prove helpful as Republicans make crime a central focus of their 2026 messaging. 

Britt said he’s open to a leadership post, but is confident that Berger will win and retain his leadership post. 

“His impact on this state has been enormously positive and will continue to be for as long as he remains in office,” he said. “I’m focused on serving in my current role in the Senate and continuing to serve the people of my district. 

“At some point in the coming years, of course, the members of the Senate will select a new leader, and it’d be an honor to be considered for that role—or any others in the upper ranks of leadership.”