Every Vote Counted in Guilford

In one of the most expensive and dramatic primary races in North Carolina political history, Rockingham County Sheriff Sam Page ended Tuesday in a virtual tie with State Senate President Pro Tem Phil Berger in their GOP primary.

At midnight, with all precincts reporting complete but unofficial results, Page was up by just two votes.

Guilford County played a key role in making it that close.

With the race likely headed to a recount, the numbers in Senate District 26 are illuminating.

Political observers expected Page to dominate in Rockingham County and dominate he did, taking about 67% of the vote. Berger needed to take the Guilford portion of the district commandingly, which he also did, with about 68% of the vote.

But what few predicted was the difference in turnout in the two counties the district includes. In Rockingham, about 29% of eligible voters cast ballots in the race, for a total of  13,509 people. In Guilford,  about 20%, a total of 12,643 people.

The Berger/Page face-off has been  fascinating on many levels, said Jason Husser, assistant professor of political science at Elon University and director of the Elon Poll. One of the lesser discussed angles: political geography.

“One reason Berger might have done better in Guilford is there is more population mobility there,” Husser said. “So if you think of Republicans moving to those outlying Guilford areas—to say, the Gibsonville area—as part of the I-40/I-85 migration we’ve been seeing, they are likely not from that region long-term.”

That means they’re less likely to be engaged in regional political grudges and local controversies, like the flap over a Berger-backed Casino proposal in Rockingham. Instead, Husser said, they’re likely to see Berger as the Republican endorsed by President Donald Trump and as a major architect of policy victories of the state’s Republican majority.

“People who haven’t been attached to town politics for 30 years would likely say, ‘Let’s go with the establishment guy,’” Husser said.

But Berger is the state’s most powerful politician, a 13-term incumbent and one of the longest serving state Senate presidents in history. That kind of career has its risks as well as its rewards.

“Longevity in politics comes with some advantages of power, but also with baggage,” Husser said. “People make a lot of enemies when they’ve been in power for decades.”

Voters tend to remember slights, disappointments, and grudges longer than they remember the good things about a politician’s career, Husser said.

“A lot of the anti-Berger spending we saw wasn’t coming from Page but from anti-Republican groups more broadly,” Husser said. “Then you add to that Republicans who may be dissatisfied with the establishment.”

Page’s position as sheriff may have given him a limited record on which to run for higher office , Husser said. But it also kept him out of many fights in Raleigh.

“Sheriffs are on the ground, in the community all the time,” Husser said.

Local political strength doesn’t always translate beyond the borders of one’s own county, Husser said. But as Tuesday’s primary proved, every vote counts.